5 ms·

colleges have been expanding with zero constraints for 20+ years - demand for degrees increased significantly, enrollment went up and up, student loans being fe

colleges have been expanding with zero constraints for 20+ years - demand for degrees increased significantly, enrollment went up and up, student loans being federally backed were given out to anyone for any amount so tuition naturally increased substantially. seemingly limitless growth opportunity? now many are massively bloated organizations with declining utility and the need to maintain their perpetual growth - who wants to cut costs? the downward spiral is only going to accelerate, IMO. and that doesn't even account for declining birth rates. my feeling is the next 20 years will see the higher ed industry contract rather quickly and the universities that remain will deliver either on quality (increasingly difficult to hold an advantage) or accessibility (inexpensive, contemporary workforce training since employers no longer do that).

pm90 5y ago
The population of the US has increased all this time too, and so has foreign student enrollment.
- rossdavidh 5y ago
  Not the college-age population, however.
syki 5y ago
Enrollment in higher ed decreased 7% from 2008 to 2018. It’s not true that colleges have been expanding with zero constraints. The increase in tuition at public colleges and universities has occurred with the decrease in public funding per student. At my system 20 years ago roughly 60% of the cost of education was publicly funded and now it is 40%. We’ve correspondingly increased tuition. https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d19/ch_3.asp https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d19/ch_3.asp
- baby-yoda 5y ago
  thank you for linking stats. going back to 1998 there is clearly huge growth. total enrollment might already be taking a hit but i am referring more to the expenditure side of things - dorm buildings, campus luxuries, etc. the figures from your link display this, IMO. especially the expenditures. https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d19/figures/fig_12.asp https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d19/figures/fig_12.asp but to be fair, yes the stats do indicate a decrease in enrollment. however degrees conferred has increased despite a decline in enrollment, any guesses as to that?
  - syki 5y ago
    There was growth in enrollment up until 2010. Colleges have been struggling since then. They need bodies and need to attract students. Standards for acceptance have gone down and grade inflation has gone up. Though grade inflation has been a thing for many decades now. As to your question. It’s easier to get a degree now since standards have been lowered since we need to retain students. The cost of acquiring a student is much higher than retaining a student so a lot of effort has gone into retention. What this boils down to in my opinion is the need to pass students. Not failing students is the easiest way to retain them.
    - baby-yoda 5y ago
      makes sense, i hadn't thought about the grade inflation aspect. somewhat akin to the prevalence of fraud in asset bubbles. i also wonder if something like the power law is in play - larger schools fairing better with a larger student base to allocate acquisition costs over, vs smaller specialty schools. anecdotally i have seen one or two small schools close to me close/merge with other schools.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
- asdff 5y ago
  That's average, but when you look at what happens on the ground, the winners, like the name brand schools you've probably heard of before, are all expanding and building new dorms and labs and athletic facilities, and the losers, those random liberal arts schools in the middle of nowhere in new england and such, are closing down and selling off their property. It's hard to find a major university that isn't constructing some massive donor-backed capital project as we speak, and acceptance rates at major state schools across the board has been dropping like a stone; even schools like Cal State are becoming very competitive.

pm90 5y ago

The population of the US has increased all this time too, and so has foreign student enrollment.

rossdavidh 5y ago
Not the college-age population, however.

syki 5y ago

Enrollment in higher ed decreased 7% from 2008 to 2018. It’s not true that colleges have been expanding with zero constraints. The increase in tuition at public colleges and universities has occurred with the decrease in public funding per student. At my system 20 years ago roughly 60% of the cost of education was publicly funded and now it is 40%. We’ve correspondingly increased tuition. https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d19/ch_3.asp https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d19/ch_3.asp

baby-yoda 5y ago
thank you for linking stats. going back to 1998 there is clearly huge growth. total enrollment might already be taking a hit but i am referring more to the expenditure side of things - dorm buildings, campus luxuries, etc. the figures from your link display this, IMO. especially the expenditures. https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d19/figures/fig_12.asp https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d19/figures/fig_12.asp but to be fair, yes the stats do indicate a decrease in enrollment. however degrees conferred has increased despite a decline in enrollment, any guesses as to that?
- syki 5y ago
  There was growth in enrollment up until 2010. Colleges have been struggling since then. They need bodies and need to attract students. Standards for acceptance have gone down and grade inflation has gone up. Though grade inflation has been a thing for many decades now. As to your question. It’s easier to get a degree now since standards have been lowered since we need to retain students. The cost of acquiring a student is much higher than retaining a student so a lot of effort has gone into retention. What this boils down to in my opinion is the need to pass students. Not failing students is the easiest way to retain them.
  - baby-yoda 5y ago
    makes sense, i hadn't thought about the grade inflation aspect. somewhat akin to the prevalence of fraud in asset bubbles. i also wonder if something like the power law is in play - larger schools fairing better with a larger student base to allocate acquisition costs over, vs smaller specialty schools. anecdotally i have seen one or two small schools close to me close/merge with other schools.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
asdff 5y ago
That's average, but when you look at what happens on the ground, the winners, like the name brand schools you've probably heard of before, are all expanding and building new dorms and labs and athletic facilities, and the losers, those random liberal arts schools in the middle of nowhere in new england and such, are closing down and selling off their property. It's hard to find a major university that isn't constructing some massive donor-backed capital project as we speak, and acceptance rates at major state schools across the board has been dropping like a stone; even schools like Cal State are becoming very competitive.