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The mere fact that a majority of scientists think X rather than Y is a poor argument for why you should believe it too. You also need to know why they believe t
by hugh3 15y ago
The mere fact that a majority of scientists think X rather than Y is a poor argument for why you should believe it too. You also need to know why they believe that and how strong their conviction is.
For instance, if the available evidence suggests that X is probably true (with, say, 90% confidence), then a poll taken of scientists will find that 99.9% of scientists will say "Yes, X is probably true". But of course there's still a 10% chance that X is false -- information well known to those scientists, but completely lost in the opinion poll.