6 ms·

I have the feeling that many people (especially politicians) think that global warming is a linear process. It's not. It might even be exponential since some so

I have the feeling that many people (especially politicians) think that global warming is a linear process. It's not. It might even be exponential since some sources for climate-warming are affected by warmer climate. For example, melting ice that reflects sunlight back to space [https://arcticwwf.org/places/last-ice-area/ https://arcticwwf.org/places/last-ice-area/]. I'm thinking about choosing a new place to live right now. Climate change is a big factor for that.

irrational 5y ago
Personally I would not buy property south of the 45th parallel anymore (in the northern hemisphere). Even north of that we have seen shockingly high temperatures. Anything south of that will become a hellscape within our lifetime.
- sumedh 5y ago
  > Personally I would not buy property south of the 45th parallel anymore Obama bought a property in Martha's Vineyard, why would a former President with all the knowledge about global warming buy it?
  - arn 5y ago
    Cause he’s rich and can afford it regardless what happens. Why would you pay for ice at a convenience store when you could make it yourself at home.
    - sumedh 5y ago
      > Cause he’s rich and can afford it regardless what happens. I dont think rich people like to lose money. Would you pay for ice when you know it would already melt when you get it?
      - arn 5y ago
        If I could use it for 20 years first, definitely.
        sumedh 5y ago
        What happens after 20 years?
        deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
        irrational 5y ago
        Obama will be 80 in 20 years. Maybe OP means he will be close to death so he won’t care about climate change affecting his vacation home.
        arn 5y ago
        ya, I'm saying that even if climate change does destroy his beach house in 20 years, they will have gotten 20 years of use out of it.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
- galangalalgol 5y ago
  Latitude will have less impact than altitude from the projections I have seen. Bogota may be less impacted than Anchorage.
- trentnix 5y ago
  Bet.
- quickthrower2 5y ago
  Maybe the futurist should not hold real estate at all - keep wealth in stocks and rent and let the landlords place their bets on chaos theory.
- ed_balls 5y ago
  it depends if it's east or west. Chicago is 42o, similar to Madrid, but I think Madrid will have bigger problems.
lmilcin 5y ago
It isn't even exponential, it might be much worse than that. Tipping points have ability to change our climate in a very, very short time. For example, Gulfstream breaking or redirecting can be a sudden event. Many people forget that Europe is very far north compared to its climate. If you chose a lattitude so that half Canadians live north of it and half south of it, that lattitude would intersect Croatia, Italy and Spain. A sudden break in Gulfstream would bring immediate step change to European climate, complete crop and extensive infrastructure failure.
- anamax 5y ago
  According to https://matadornetwork.com/read/where-canadians-live-south-line/ https://matadornetwork.com/read/where-canadians-live-south-l..., 70% of Canadians live south of the 49th parallel. That line is the US/Canada border for much of the country. (It isn't the border in the east, where Toronto, Ottawa, and Montréal are.)
smiley1437 5y ago
I don't want to sound fatalistic but it's difficult to see how we can reset the 4 big feedback loops in any reasonable amount of time: Ice-albedo feedback - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice%E2%80%93albedo_feedback https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice%E2%80%93albedo_feedback Permafrost thaw feedback - https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/global-carbon-budget-permafrost-feedback-loops-arctic/ https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/global-carbon-budget-perm... Forestfire\Drought feedback - https://weatherology.com/trending/articles/Drought-Feedback-Loop-Wildfires.html https://weatherology.com/trending/articles/Drought-Feedback-... Jetstream Disruption feedback - https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/understanding-arctic-polar-vortex https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/... It'll be like stopping an avalanche with a shovel. Any control theory guys out there with suggestions?
- toomuchtodo 5y ago
  Sulfur dioxide aerosol injection in the stratosphere until carbon capture and decarbonization can catch up. We desperately need an energy inexpensive way to sequester atmospheric carbon underground in stable (mineral) form. Hopefully we’ll see progress from Climeworks or similar concerns in this space. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aae98d/meta https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aae98d/...
  - funkykong 5y ago
    I wonder if Venusians tried the same thing which lead to the concentrations of SO2 we see in Venus' atmosphere.
    - DrAwdeOccarim 5y ago
      Someone should make this a movie.
      - deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
  - 5y ago
anonporridge 5y ago
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function."
- vanusa 5y ago
  Actually the problem is that a sizable cabal has come to understand the exponential function all too well. And has applied it to the theory and practice of capital investment in exchange for increasing returns (back to the investors) -- while externalizing cost (onto the environment, and those less empowered).
  - warlog 5y ago
    That's not the exponential function. That's grift and theft.
threatofrain 5y ago
Where ought one move to optimize for climate change?
- rednerrus 5y ago
  North Dakota.
  - adamrezich 5y ago
    upvoting to draw attention away from South Dakota
  - tenpies 5y ago
    Calgary. It amazes me that despite the Chinese money laundering, the Trudeau Federal government willingness to back residential real estate through monetary, immigration, and legal policies; and just the general Canadian willingness to pretend everyone is well-intended and no one would lie in a mortgage application; that Calgary is the one place in Canada that remains somewhat reasonably priced. Multiple road and rail routes that would make it almost impossible for the city to be cut off (a la Vancouver last year). Reasonably good international airport that is set for expansion - although the expansion was very tied to energy. Very well protected with mountains on one side (but far enough to avoid the major floods or mud slides). Some rivers in the city do flood, but stick to the higher-placed properties and you'll be fine. Some exposure to forest fire smoke, but only smoke, the land around is generally farmland or ranching, and well protected from catching fire. Great self-reliance for food and energy. Problems: generally just the Canada-wide ones (e.g. healthcare system has collapsed but they haven't noticed, Ottawa largely doesn't care about the West, economy is 50% real estate, immigration is 95% of population growth and has resulted in a very exploitative and corrupt system that lures in young people to be poorly-paid expendable labour under the guise of Canadian Permanent Resident through exorbitantly expensive but low-quality education). Locally, Calgary leans very left (NDP, the Left-most party in Canada), but this balances well with the Conservative provincial government.
    - soperj 5y ago
anonporridge 5y ago
Don't forget about the fact that the amount of energy required to phase change 0°C ice into 0°C water is about the same amount of energy required to heat 0°C water to 79°C water... https://courses.lumenlearning.com/boundless-physics/chapter/phase-change-and-latent-heat/ https://courses.lumenlearning.com/boundless-physics/chapter/...
- thfuran 5y ago
  What about it?
Diederich 5y ago
> I'm thinking about choosing a new place to live right now. Climate change is a big factor for that. I'd honestly love to hear your thinking about how to find a climate-change 'aware' location to live, thanks.
- King-Aaron 5y ago
  Space?

irrational 5y ago

Personally I would not buy property south of the 45th parallel anymore (in the northern hemisphere). Even north of that we have seen shockingly high temperatures. Anything south of that will become a hellscape within our lifetime.

sumedh 5y ago
> Personally I would not buy property south of the 45th parallel anymore Obama bought a property in Martha's Vineyard, why would a former President with all the knowledge about global warming buy it?
- arn 5y ago
  Cause he’s rich and can afford it regardless what happens. Why would you pay for ice at a convenience store when you could make it yourself at home.
  - sumedh 5y ago
    > Cause he’s rich and can afford it regardless what happens. I dont think rich people like to lose money. Would you pay for ice when you know it would already melt when you get it?
    - arn 5y ago
      If I could use it for 20 years first, definitely.
      - sumedh 5y ago
        What happens after 20 years?
        deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
        irrational 5y ago
        Obama will be 80 in 20 years. Maybe OP means he will be close to death so he won’t care about climate change affecting his vacation home.
        arn 5y ago
        ya, I'm saying that even if climate change does destroy his beach house in 20 years, they will have gotten 20 years of use out of it.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
galangalalgol 5y ago
Latitude will have less impact than altitude from the projections I have seen. Bogota may be less impacted than Anchorage.
trentnix 5y ago
Bet.
quickthrower2 5y ago
Maybe the futurist should not hold real estate at all - keep wealth in stocks and rent and let the landlords place their bets on chaos theory.
ed_balls 5y ago
it depends if it's east or west. Chicago is 42o, similar to Madrid, but I think Madrid will have bigger problems.

lmilcin 5y ago

It isn't even exponential, it might be much worse than that. Tipping points have ability to change our climate in a very, very short time. For example, Gulfstream breaking or redirecting can be a sudden event. Many people forget that Europe is very far north compared to its climate. If you chose a lattitude so that half Canadians live north of it and half south of it, that lattitude would intersect Croatia, Italy and Spain. A sudden break in Gulfstream would bring immediate step change to European climate, complete crop and extensive infrastructure failure.

anamax 5y ago
According to https://matadornetwork.com/read/where-canadians-live-south-line/ https://matadornetwork.com/read/where-canadians-live-south-l..., 70% of Canadians live south of the 49th parallel. That line is the US/Canada border for much of the country. (It isn't the border in the east, where Toronto, Ottawa, and Montréal are.)

smiley1437 5y ago

I don't want to sound fatalistic but it's difficult to see how we can reset the 4 big feedback loops in any reasonable amount of time: Ice-albedo feedback - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice%E2%80%93albedo_feedback https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice%E2%80%93albedo_feedback Permafrost thaw feedback - https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/global-carbon-budget-permafrost-feedback-loops-arctic/ https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/global-carbon-budget-perm... Forestfire\Drought feedback - https://weatherology.com/trending/articles/Drought-Feedback-Loop-Wildfires.html https://weatherology.com/trending/articles/Drought-Feedback-... Jetstream Disruption feedback - https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/understanding-arctic-polar-vortex https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/... It'll be like stopping an avalanche with a shovel. Any control theory guys out there with suggestions?

toomuchtodo 5y ago
Sulfur dioxide aerosol injection in the stratosphere until carbon capture and decarbonization can catch up. We desperately need an energy inexpensive way to sequester atmospheric carbon underground in stable (mineral) form. Hopefully we’ll see progress from Climeworks or similar concerns in this space. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aae98d/meta https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aae98d/...
- funkykong 5y ago
  I wonder if Venusians tried the same thing which lead to the concentrations of SO2 we see in Venus' atmosphere.
  - DrAwdeOccarim 5y ago
    Someone should make this a movie.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
- 5y ago

anonporridge 5y ago

"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function."

vanusa 5y ago
Actually the problem is that a sizable cabal has come to understand the exponential function all too well. And has applied it to the theory and practice of capital investment in exchange for increasing returns (back to the investors) -- while externalizing cost (onto the environment, and those less empowered).
- warlog 5y ago
  That's not the exponential function. That's grift and theft.

threatofrain 5y ago

Where ought one move to optimize for climate change?

rednerrus 5y ago
North Dakota.
- adamrezich 5y ago
  upvoting to draw attention away from South Dakota
- tenpies 5y ago
  Calgary. It amazes me that despite the Chinese money laundering, the Trudeau Federal government willingness to back residential real estate through monetary, immigration, and legal policies; and just the general Canadian willingness to pretend everyone is well-intended and no one would lie in a mortgage application; that Calgary is the one place in Canada that remains somewhat reasonably priced. Multiple road and rail routes that would make it almost impossible for the city to be cut off (a la Vancouver last year). Reasonably good international airport that is set for expansion - although the expansion was very tied to energy. Very well protected with mountains on one side (but far enough to avoid the major floods or mud slides). Some rivers in the city do flood, but stick to the higher-placed properties and you'll be fine. Some exposure to forest fire smoke, but only smoke, the land around is generally farmland or ranching, and well protected from catching fire. Great self-reliance for food and energy. Problems: generally just the Canada-wide ones (e.g. healthcare system has collapsed but they haven't noticed, Ottawa largely doesn't care about the West, economy is 50% real estate, immigration is 95% of population growth and has resulted in a very exploitative and corrupt system that lures in young people to be poorly-paid expendable labour under the guise of Canadian Permanent Resident through exorbitantly expensive but low-quality education). Locally, Calgary leans very left (NDP, the Left-most party in Canada), but this balances well with the Conservative provincial government.
  - soperj 5y ago

anonporridge 5y ago

Don't forget about the fact that the amount of energy required to phase change 0°C ice into 0°C water is about the same amount of energy required to heat 0°C water to 79°C water... https://courses.lumenlearning.com/boundless-physics/chapter/phase-change-and-latent-heat/ https://courses.lumenlearning.com/boundless-physics/chapter/...

thfuran 5y ago
What about it?

Diederich 5y ago

> I'm thinking about choosing a new place to live right now. Climate change is a big factor for that. I'd honestly love to hear your thinking about how to find a climate-change 'aware' location to live, thanks.

King-Aaron 5y ago
Space?