5 ms·

I try to understand the current restrictions but the numbers don’t make sense to me anymore. In my country there have been around 21k deaths from COVID (offici

I try to understand the current restrictions but the numbers don’t make sense to me anymore. In my country there have been around 21k deaths from COVID (officially). 0.9% of those deaths were people that were between 0-49 years old. That’s ~200 deaths, in two years. The age group 0-49 represents 59% of the population in my country. I wish we’d get some numbers that we can work towards, in terms of when we can open up society again. This is a very hopeless situation.

mettamage 5y ago
The problem that should be prevented is the healthcare system from being clogged. It wasn't pretty to begin with before COVID started, and now things are just ugly (i.e. waiting lists, rescheduling vital operations). I guess as I say this, the real question will be what's the excess mortality going to become if we let COVID run unchecked? What's the excess illness going to be (e.g. depression, untreated diseases, etc.)? I don't have good data on this unfortunately. > I wish we’d get some numbers that we can work towards, in terms of when we can open up society again. This is a very hopeless situation. I'll give you a number that is kind of pulled out of thin air, but it gets the point across: 95% fully boosted.
dariusj18 5y ago
I'm confused, are you saying that because only a certain subset of society is at risk of death that everyone else should just go about their days, even though going about their days WILL put that subset of people at further risk?
- bananapear 5y ago
  Isn't that an accurate description of how life used to work pre-2020?
  - dariusj18 5y ago
    You mean before there was a pandemic? Sure, it's all a matter of risk factors though. When there is a pan/epidemic that puts a large group at a 5-25% risk of mortality, that is a special circumstance.
    - theodric 5y ago
      This always boils down to the push-pull between self-centered and group-centered people. The self-centered only care about themselves, and favor letting the weak die to further that end. I think they sound like monsters, and they probably think I sound like a "cuck."
      - throw3434053 5y ago
        I think it is the other way round. The tiny, 'selfish' fraction want to shut down the 'group' that is society because they are more at risk.
      - stickfigure 5y ago
        You sound like someone who really enjoys building up and tearing down straw men.
        theodric 5y ago
        You sound like someone who responds on message boards with ad-hominems rather than counterarguments, nice to meet you!
      - peteradio 5y ago
        Let's say I walk into a movie theater/church/restaurant and nobody is wearing a mask. Is everyone else a jerk for not wearing one, or am I the jerk for expecting everyone else to?
        readthenotes1 5y ago
        The most extrapunitive, other-blaming, people I know are sociopaths so I'm going with the latter explanation.
        true_religion 5y ago
        Third option: You are the jerk for not wearing a mask. I mean, why would you worry about if others are unmasked when you already are vaccinated and wearing an N95 mask on top of that?
- throw3434053 5y ago
  Does this sentence sound that crazy to you?
- baskethead 5y ago
  Yes. Omicron is already less deadly by 10x. Covid has a 0.5% death rate pre-omicron. With vaccinations it brings the death rate down to negligible. At thus point I think we need to stop trying to protect everyone. Some people as going to die. It’s tragic. But we can’t keep locking down everyone. I am currently going through Covid. I could die from it. I probably won’t. It’s an annoying cold at this point. We have to change policy to accept that for 99.99% of people omicron will be mild and will confer immunity. Some people will die like the flu. We have medication now that works. We have vaccinations that work. We have masks that work. Let’s move on.
  - TMWNN 5y ago
    >Omicron is already less deadly by 10x. Covid has a 0.5% death rate pre-omicron. With vaccinations it brings the death rate down to negligible. To put another way, if you are right (I haven't seen definitive numbers, other than hopes/preliminary findings that the variant seems to be less deadly), the Omicron variant is about half as deadly as the annual flu (about 0.1% IFR).
acdha 5y ago
The two questions I'd look at: 1. What was the total excess mortality during that period? In many countries, the official totals are significantly lower because they only include lab-verified cases or don't cover things like, say, someone dying of a heart condition they had been successfully managing before contracting COVID. 2. How many people would have died without safety measures being in place, especially people who would have been unable to get unrelated medical care they needed because the medical system is over capacity. The second number is obviously fuzzy but it touches on the biggest factor for ending it in my opinion: vaccination rates. If you have a high percentage of the population vaccinated, you are still going to see spread but that shifts it closer to something like influenza where you might still want additional measures for some high-risk activities (e.g. indoor dining without good ventilation) but you're not looking at ICUs being flooded. The current vaccines appear to give something like an order of magnitude reduction in that risk so those are what I'd tie re-opening to those rates.
- falcolas 5y ago
  Third question: How many people are in hospitalization, optionally compared against the capacity of the same hospitals. Since those numbers affect a lot of things from workforce availability to the ability to get emergency care if you need it.
- tinus_hn 5y ago
  > What was the total excess mortality during that period? If you calculate this way, you’ll lump the damage done by lockdowns with the damage done by the disease and use it as an argument for more lockdowns.
  - acdha 5y ago
    Researchers can look for this by comparing the places which did long lockdowns against the places which did not. Very few places had lengthy restrictions on seeking medical care except due to hospital overload, which is a problem caused by the pandemic not safety measures.
    - 5y ago
ebiester 5y ago
Add to that number the people who are affected by long COVID, which can really impair quality of life and for which we don't have a good idea of numbers. Further, when it goes unchecked, the hospitals get overwhelmed, which has follow-on effects. People with preventable illnesses are affected by a lack of beds.

mettamage 5y ago

The problem that should be prevented is the healthcare system from being clogged. It wasn't pretty to begin with before COVID started, and now things are just ugly (i.e. waiting lists, rescheduling vital operations). I guess as I say this, the real question will be what's the excess mortality going to become if we let COVID run unchecked? What's the excess illness going to be (e.g. depression, untreated diseases, etc.)? I don't have good data on this unfortunately. > I wish we’d get some numbers that we can work towards, in terms of when we can open up society again. This is a very hopeless situation. I'll give you a number that is kind of pulled out of thin air, but it gets the point across: 95% fully boosted.

dariusj18 5y ago

I'm confused, are you saying that because only a certain subset of society is at risk of death that everyone else should just go about their days, even though going about their days WILL put that subset of people at further risk?

bananapear 5y ago
Isn't that an accurate description of how life used to work pre-2020?
- dariusj18 5y ago
  You mean before there was a pandemic? Sure, it's all a matter of risk factors though. When there is a pan/epidemic that puts a large group at a 5-25% risk of mortality, that is a special circumstance.
  - theodric 5y ago
    This always boils down to the push-pull between self-centered and group-centered people. The self-centered only care about themselves, and favor letting the weak die to further that end. I think they sound like monsters, and they probably think I sound like a "cuck."
    - throw3434053 5y ago
      I think it is the other way round. The tiny, 'selfish' fraction want to shut down the 'group' that is society because they are more at risk.
    - stickfigure 5y ago
      You sound like someone who really enjoys building up and tearing down straw men.
      - theodric 5y ago
        You sound like someone who responds on message boards with ad-hominems rather than counterarguments, nice to meet you!
    - peteradio 5y ago
      Let's say I walk into a movie theater/church/restaurant and nobody is wearing a mask. Is everyone else a jerk for not wearing one, or am I the jerk for expecting everyone else to?
      - readthenotes1 5y ago
        The most extrapunitive, other-blaming, people I know are sociopaths so I'm going with the latter explanation.
      - true_religion 5y ago
        Third option: You are the jerk for not wearing a mask. I mean, why would you worry about if others are unmasked when you already are vaccinated and wearing an N95 mask on top of that?
throw3434053 5y ago
Does this sentence sound that crazy to you?
baskethead 5y ago
Yes. Omicron is already less deadly by 10x. Covid has a 0.5% death rate pre-omicron. With vaccinations it brings the death rate down to negligible. At thus point I think we need to stop trying to protect everyone. Some people as going to die. It’s tragic. But we can’t keep locking down everyone. I am currently going through Covid. I could die from it. I probably won’t. It’s an annoying cold at this point. We have to change policy to accept that for 99.99% of people omicron will be mild and will confer immunity. Some people will die like the flu. We have medication now that works. We have vaccinations that work. We have masks that work. Let’s move on.
- TMWNN 5y ago
  >Omicron is already less deadly by 10x. Covid has a 0.5% death rate pre-omicron. With vaccinations it brings the death rate down to negligible. To put another way, if you are right (I haven't seen definitive numbers, other than hopes/preliminary findings that the variant seems to be less deadly), the Omicron variant is about half as deadly as the annual flu (about 0.1% IFR).

acdha 5y ago

The two questions I'd look at: 1. What was the total excess mortality during that period? In many countries, the official totals are significantly lower because they only include lab-verified cases or don't cover things like, say, someone dying of a heart condition they had been successfully managing before contracting COVID. 2. How many people would have died without safety measures being in place, especially people who would have been unable to get unrelated medical care they needed because the medical system is over capacity. The second number is obviously fuzzy but it touches on the biggest factor for ending it in my opinion: vaccination rates. If you have a high percentage of the population vaccinated, you are still going to see spread but that shifts it closer to something like influenza where you might still want additional measures for some high-risk activities (e.g. indoor dining without good ventilation) but you're not looking at ICUs being flooded. The current vaccines appear to give something like an order of magnitude reduction in that risk so those are what I'd tie re-opening to those rates.

falcolas 5y ago
Third question: How many people are in hospitalization, optionally compared against the capacity of the same hospitals. Since those numbers affect a lot of things from workforce availability to the ability to get emergency care if you need it.
tinus_hn 5y ago
> What was the total excess mortality during that period? If you calculate this way, you’ll lump the damage done by lockdowns with the damage done by the disease and use it as an argument for more lockdowns.
- acdha 5y ago
  Researchers can look for this by comparing the places which did long lockdowns against the places which did not. Very few places had lengthy restrictions on seeking medical care except due to hospital overload, which is a problem caused by the pandemic not safety measures.
  - 5y ago

ebiester 5y ago

Add to that number the people who are affected by long COVID, which can really impair quality of life and for which we don't have a good idea of numbers. Further, when it goes unchecked, the hospitals get overwhelmed, which has follow-on effects. People with preventable illnesses are affected by a lack of beds.