3 ms·
As people are so fond of reminding here, "correlation is not causation". These data do not imply that: "some of the things that one might think have an impact
by lutorm 15y ago
As people are so fond of reminding here, "correlation is not causation". These data do not imply that:
"some of the things that one might think have an impact on traffic fatalities that according to Smeed’s law do not: better traffic signage, traffic rules, more stringent enforcement of such rules, mass adoption of safety equipment etc."
You can NOT draw that conclusion from these data alone. For this, you need a sample that has the same N/P but differ among the factors above. It is entirely plausible that this graph comes about from the adoptation of such measures, which are only done by societies as the number of vehicles increases.
If you want these data to be explained by homeostasis, you need to show that the risk of dying is the same in all these countries. When judged by D/N, it sure looks like the acceptable risk is not the same, but it's probably not a good measure. Is "fraction of the population dying in vehicle accidents" really constant among these countries? In that case, I'd agree that it looks like homeostasis.
- olavk 15y agoYeah, it is pretty plausible that the more cars in a country, there more investments will be done in traffic safety. Also because more cars typically mean richer country, which means more developed infrastructure and perhaps better education. I have a hunch that the number of iPads per citizen also correlates with fewer traffic deaths per car.
- Lagged2Death 15y agoYou can NOT draw that conclusion from these data alone. You're right, but there is a lot of other data, and a whole new design philosophy that follows from it (http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/12.12/traffic.html http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/12.12/traffic.html), which I suspect the blogger is aware of but which he has chosen not to introduce here. His subject isn't actually traffic, after all, but his conjecture about computer code.
- lutorm 15y agoI'm aware of the different strategies of roadway safety. However, if the conclusion from the article is true, then there shouldn't be any design philosophy that works, though...