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Facts are facts. The fact is in 2019 there were 39,397 wet markets in China. How many virology labs were there in China handling Corona-viruses? TWO. One of whi

Facts are facts. The fact is in 2019 there were 39,397 wet markets in China. How many virology labs were there in China handling Corona-viruses? TWO. One of which was TWO BLOCKS from where the wet market from where the original Covid-19 virus which started the pandemic has been traced to. One might be forgiven for being curious as to the likelihood of the virus emerging from this particular wet market as opposed to all others.

dboreham 5y ago
That's not how probability works. You'd need to wait for thousands of years and several pandemics to know if they are more or less likely to emerge next to a virology lab. And then you'd need to control for the fact that virology labs are better at detecting dangerous viruses than average humans. Like how the first confirmed cases in the US were in Davis --- because there's a specialist unit at UC Davis that was already treating cruise ship patients.
- divbzero 5y ago
  That is actually how probability works when you are assessing the probability of uncertain propositions [1]. The prevalence of wet markets vs. virology labs should not be the only input but it is definitely relevant to our assessment of probabilities. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_inference https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_inference
- endominus 5y ago
  Oh, I never get to share this. Relevant SMBC comic; https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/2010-09-08 https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/2010-09-08
mads 5y ago
Additionally the closest cave containing any viruses resembling SARS-Cov-2 are 1500 km away from Wuhan.
- carlivar 5y ago
  And when journalists tried to access those caves, the road was suddenly closed.
  - mads 5y ago
    Indeed... And in creative manners. Here is the report from the visit: https://twitter.com/thejohnsudworth/status/1397223374745706510 https://twitter.com/thejohnsudworth/status/13972233747457065... Someone really really didn't want anyone near those mines.
    - awb 5y ago
      Apparently he ran afoul of the Chinese government in 2017: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/03/bbc-crew-attacked-in-china-says-reporter https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/03/bbc-crew-attac... Fair to also entertain the possibility that they were tracking him because of his previous reporting on land reform in remote villages, when he travelled into remote areas again 4 years later. He had to sign a forced confession the first time and if they caught him interviewing disgruntled villagers again, I’m sure they were ready to ratchet up the punishment. The 2021 Twitter story sounds very similar to the 2017 one: being followed and physically blocked by people. > As they walked towards her house, a group of men blocked their way, pushed Sudworth and smashed and snatched the crew’s cameras. > “As soon as we arrived in Yang Linghua’s village it was clear they were expecting us,” Sudworth wrote in his account, referring to the woman the BBC wanted to interview. Could be the mines, or could be the Chinese government harassing a Western journalist they already had an issue with.
- lamontcg 5y ago
  The closest cave containing any viruses resembling SARS-CoV-1 are about the same distance away from Guangzhou where the outbreak was in 2003.
awb 5y ago
> One of which was TWO BLOCKS from where the wet market from where the original Covid-19 virus which started the pandemic has been traced to TWO BLOCKS? Or a 40min drive? This is why the lab leak theory feels conspiracy-adjacent. Too much exaggeration. https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/D961/production/_118694655_wuhan_map_640-2x-nc.png https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/D961/production/... > The institute is a 40-minute drive from the Huanan wet market where the first cluster of infections emerged in Wuhan. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-57268111.amp https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-57268111.amp There’s plenty of valid scientific inquiry to be had regarding the theory once you get past the misinformation. But the political showmanship and the attraction of conspiracy theorists doesn’t help.
- AnthonyMouse 5y ago
  This is a common problem with conspiracies when they actually happened. You still get "conspiracy theorists" showing up with theories contrary to evidence or fabrications or misrememberings of details. Which then discredits their own position -- even if the conspiracy actually happened -- because it didn't happen the way they claim it did. There is a conspiracy theory that this method is used by conspirators to effect a coverup by discrediting skeptics of the official narrative.
  - donny2018 5y ago
    >There is a conspiracy theory that this method is used by conspirators to effect a coverup by discrediting skeptics of the official narrative. This is actual public disinformation practice, not a "conspiracy theory".
    - AnthonyMouse 5y ago
      Moon landing conspiracy theories are full of discredited nonsense. It is a conspiracy theory to claim that the source of the discredited nonsense is the people who faked the moon landing, because the moon landing wasn't faked so there were no such conspirators to do that. Distinguishing this from the other thing is the issue. They do it because it works.
rixed 5y ago
This line of reasoning forget a very important information: research labs are not built at random. This lab studying coronavirusses was built there precisely because this is a place where new coronavirusses have appeared in the past. Will add a source later when not on mobile.
- coupdejarnac 5y ago
  Not because Wuhan is a large, central city?
- rixed 5y ago
  Couldn't find the source I was looking for, which was I believe from a french scientist (likely from the French CIRI that co-founded the Wuhan lab studying coronavirusses). So I will have to softer my above assertion that the lab was build "precisely" in Wuhan because it was a place where coronavirusses have appeared in the past, into the less convincing: this lab was build in China because that's were coronavirusses responsible for SARS have come from. Still not completely random. And yes labs and wild animal markets tend to met in high population density area, so that's another non-random factor I presume. This coincidence is indeed troubling, but before jumping to conclusions it's good to remember why there is such consensus against lab leak theory, by (re)reading the original report on the origin of SARS-Cov2 (https://zenodo.org/record/5075888 https://zenodo.org/record/5075888) and the short history of SARS past outbreaks (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS#Outbreak_in_South_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS#Outbreak_in_South_China - which interestingly lists several past lab leaks). I don't find any of the competing theory very obvious to be honest. What is very obvious though, and was made even more obvious to me when I was looking for that source, is the amount of political manipulation around this topic. The epidemic of manipulation of opinion is a greater concern that the epidemic of that virus if you ask me. Can we refrain from posting articles about science from political newspapers, maybe?

dboreham 5y ago

That's not how probability works. You'd need to wait for thousands of years and several pandemics to know if they are more or less likely to emerge next to a virology lab. And then you'd need to control for the fact that virology labs are better at detecting dangerous viruses than average humans. Like how the first confirmed cases in the US were in Davis --- because there's a specialist unit at UC Davis that was already treating cruise ship patients.

divbzero 5y ago
That is actually how probability works when you are assessing the probability of uncertain propositions [1]. The prevalence of wet markets vs. virology labs should not be the only input but it is definitely relevant to our assessment of probabilities. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_inference https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_inference
endominus 5y ago
Oh, I never get to share this. Relevant SMBC comic; https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/2010-09-08 https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/2010-09-08

mads 5y ago

Additionally the closest cave containing any viruses resembling SARS-Cov-2 are 1500 km away from Wuhan.

carlivar 5y ago
And when journalists tried to access those caves, the road was suddenly closed.
- mads 5y ago
  Indeed... And in creative manners. Here is the report from the visit: https://twitter.com/thejohnsudworth/status/1397223374745706510 https://twitter.com/thejohnsudworth/status/13972233747457065... Someone really really didn't want anyone near those mines.
  - awb 5y ago
    Apparently he ran afoul of the Chinese government in 2017: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/03/bbc-crew-attacked-in-china-says-reporter https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/03/bbc-crew-attac... Fair to also entertain the possibility that they were tracking him because of his previous reporting on land reform in remote villages, when he travelled into remote areas again 4 years later. He had to sign a forced confession the first time and if they caught him interviewing disgruntled villagers again, I’m sure they were ready to ratchet up the punishment. The 2021 Twitter story sounds very similar to the 2017 one: being followed and physically blocked by people. > As they walked towards her house, a group of men blocked their way, pushed Sudworth and smashed and snatched the crew’s cameras. > “As soon as we arrived in Yang Linghua’s village it was clear they were expecting us,” Sudworth wrote in his account, referring to the woman the BBC wanted to interview. Could be the mines, or could be the Chinese government harassing a Western journalist they already had an issue with.
lamontcg 5y ago
The closest cave containing any viruses resembling SARS-CoV-1 are about the same distance away from Guangzhou where the outbreak was in 2003.

awb 5y ago

> One of which was TWO BLOCKS from where the wet market from where the original Covid-19 virus which started the pandemic has been traced to TWO BLOCKS? Or a 40min drive? This is why the lab leak theory feels conspiracy-adjacent. Too much exaggeration. https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/D961/production/_118694655_wuhan_map_640-2x-nc.png https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/D961/production/... > The institute is a 40-minute drive from the Huanan wet market where the first cluster of infections emerged in Wuhan. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-57268111.amp https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-57268111.amp There’s plenty of valid scientific inquiry to be had regarding the theory once you get past the misinformation. But the political showmanship and the attraction of conspiracy theorists doesn’t help.

AnthonyMouse 5y ago
This is a common problem with conspiracies when they actually happened. You still get "conspiracy theorists" showing up with theories contrary to evidence or fabrications or misrememberings of details. Which then discredits their own position -- even if the conspiracy actually happened -- because it didn't happen the way they claim it did. There is a conspiracy theory that this method is used by conspirators to effect a coverup by discrediting skeptics of the official narrative.
- donny2018 5y ago
  >There is a conspiracy theory that this method is used by conspirators to effect a coverup by discrediting skeptics of the official narrative. This is actual public disinformation practice, not a "conspiracy theory".
  - AnthonyMouse 5y ago
    Moon landing conspiracy theories are full of discredited nonsense. It is a conspiracy theory to claim that the source of the discredited nonsense is the people who faked the moon landing, because the moon landing wasn't faked so there were no such conspirators to do that. Distinguishing this from the other thing is the issue. They do it because it works.

rixed 5y ago

This line of reasoning forget a very important information: research labs are not built at random. This lab studying coronavirusses was built there precisely because this is a place where new coronavirusses have appeared in the past. Will add a source later when not on mobile.

coupdejarnac 5y ago
Not because Wuhan is a large, central city?
rixed 5y ago
Couldn't find the source I was looking for, which was I believe from a french scientist (likely from the French CIRI that co-founded the Wuhan lab studying coronavirusses). So I will have to softer my above assertion that the lab was build "precisely" in Wuhan because it was a place where coronavirusses have appeared in the past, into the less convincing: this lab was build in China because that's were coronavirusses responsible for SARS have come from. Still not completely random. And yes labs and wild animal markets tend to met in high population density area, so that's another non-random factor I presume. This coincidence is indeed troubling, but before jumping to conclusions it's good to remember why there is such consensus against lab leak theory, by (re)reading the original report on the origin of SARS-Cov2 (https://zenodo.org/record/5075888 https://zenodo.org/record/5075888) and the short history of SARS past outbreaks (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS#Outbreak_in_South_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS#Outbreak_in_South_China - which interestingly lists several past lab leaks). I don't find any of the competing theory very obvious to be honest. What is very obvious though, and was made even more obvious to me when I was looking for that source, is the amount of political manipulation around this topic. The epidemic of manipulation of opinion is a greater concern that the epidemic of that virus if you ask me. Can we refrain from posting articles about science from political newspapers, maybe?