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Some additional perspectives: Snopes is highly skeptical: https://www.snopes.com/news/2021/07/16/lab-leak-evidence/ https://www.snopes.com/news/2021/07/16/lab-

by awb 5y ago

Some additional perspectives: Snopes is highly skeptical: https://www.snopes.com/news/2021/07/16/lab-leak-evidence/ https://www.snopes.com/news/2021/07/16/lab-leak-evidence/ An r/science essay from a PhD in virology is highly skeptical: https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did_not_come_from_the_wuhan_institute_of/ https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did... While Root Claim estimates an 83% chance of a lab leak: https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/What-is-the-source-of-COVID-19-SARS-CoV-2 https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/What-is-the-source-of-COV...

perryizgr8 5y ago
Snopes and the science page on reddit are not confidence-inspiring sources, to be honest. We need an authoritative investigation (led by WHO/CDC) into the origins of the virus to be able to make knowledgable statements. Until that happens, there is only hearsay and speculation.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- rhino369 5y ago
  I wouldn’t trust the CDC or WHO. We need an independent group who don’t have any baggage on this issue. CDC can’t be trusted to even make a simple covid test and they don’t want to admit scientific research killed 20 million people.
  - perryizgr8 5y ago
    Sad truth is that CDC/WHO are one of the most competent authorities on the matter, and they have experienced experts in the relevant fields. Only when politics comes into play, that the organisations' actions and intentions are called into question. The ideal thing would be to somehow remove international political considerations from the equation and then ask WHO to conduct an investigation. Of course, the chances of that happening are probably lower than an actually lethal virus leaking from a lab.
- sudosysgen 5y ago
  It's not a science page on Reddit, the source is a published virologist who himself cites dozens and dozens of sources. I find it odd that people are commenting about how this doesn't inspire confidence, but "rootclaim" as well as an editorialised headline from the telegraph is.
xqcgrek2 5y ago
Snopes and Reddit are not credible.
- sudosysgen 5y ago
  The source isn't Reddit, it's a published virologist, and he himself cites over a hundred academic sources. Reddit is the medium.
  - andreilys 5y ago
    I am very confident that SARS-CoV-2 has no connection to the Wuhan Institute of Virology or any other laboratory. Not genetic engineering, not intentional evolution, not an accidental release. The most plausible scenario, by a landslide, is that SARS-CoV-2 jumped from a bat (or other species) into a human, in the wild. A year later and we are yet to see a zoonotic link, but of course it’s the “most plausible scenario”. The reality is that we will likely never know because it’s not in chinas best interest to allow any real investigation into this.
    - sudosysgen 5y ago
      SARS's zoonotic link was only established in 2017. You can't expect it to be find. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. And it's going to be harder for this virus than SARS. Right now, over a year later, reality is conforming exactly to what you would expect to happen starting from that hypothesis a year ago. So I don't even understand why you're mentioning it, it's not a logical argument.
      - riyadparvez 5y ago
        According to this > Sep 9, 2003 (CIDRAP News) – Chinese scientists found that animals sold at street markets in Guangdong, China, carried a coronavirus nearly identical to the SARS coronavirus, according to a report published recently in Science. > The animal viruses were found in Himalayan palm civets and raccoon dogs, which were sold for food in the markets, according to the report. The findings indicate a route of transmission between species but do not reveal whether these animals are the virus's natural reservoir or contracted it from another source, according to the report. Source [1]. The same thing didn't happen for SARS-CoV2. I believe none of the animals in the wet market has been tested positive for SARS-CoV2 or SARS-CoV2-like viruses [2]. [1] https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2003/09/animals-chinese-markets-carried-sars-virus https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2003/09/animals-... [2] https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/03/26/1021263/bat-covid-coronavirus-cause-origin-wuhan/ https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/03/26/1021263/bat-covi...
perihelions 5y ago
That PhD virologist comes off as not credible at all, as part of their response is to deny the entire possibility of lab leaks in general. Their argument is that industrial accidents are simply caused by incompetence or lack of funding, and WIV is well-funded and run by competent people: therefore, bad things simply cannot happen. Their attitude is fundamentally unserious. https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did_not_come_from_the_wuhan_institute_of/fqpccr1/ https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did... (4.1) >"I say this as someone who has been to these conferences, who knows many scientists who work on dangerous viruses, and work in facilities like the Wuhan Institute of Virology. We virologists know this group, we know about the WIV, and the WIV facilities do not frighten us. We do not view WIV as “unsound” or “risky” or “dangerous” or “incompetent” (76)." >"We’re not worried about BSL4 labs that are well-equipped, well-funded, etc. (like the WIV is)." >[...] "We biosecurity people are also very concerned about new BSL4 labs being built in developing countries in South America and Africa (99). But, you know what’s interesting? The WIV and its researchers are part of these committees that get together and discuss what to do about these challenges. They are part of the people who are helping to decide what is “safe enough” for a BSL4 lab! We here in the US agree with the WIV about what “safe” means (76). And the biggest reason for that is that we here in the United States helped train WIV researchers. We are the ones who taught them how to work with these dangerous viruses (76,100,101)." (There are no buffer overflows in this C code: I'm very competent and experienced and how dare you).
- sudosysgen 5y ago
  It doesn't seem at all line they're claiming that lab escapes never happen. Just that this particular lab is known for being extremely safe, and that it's therefore unlikely it would have had a leak. For a leak of such a virus to happen from a BSL4 facility that routinely handles much more contagious viruses, you would need incompetence or funding issues, yes.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - andreilys 5y ago
johncena33 5y ago
First of all, if a transmission can happen at a wet market, it can also happen inside a lab. One doesn't need a virology degree to understand something this simple. As a matter of fact that's exactly what happened in a Taiwan lab [1]. [1]: https://fortune.com/2021/12/10/taiwan-investigates-covid-lab-leak-scientist-tests-positive-bite-infected-mouse/ https://fortune.com/2021/12/10/taiwan-investigates-covid-lab...

by awb 5y ago

perryizgr8 5y ago

Snopes and the science page on reddit are not confidence-inspiring sources, to be honest. We need an authoritative investigation (led by WHO/CDC) into the origins of the virus to be able to make knowledgable statements. Until that happens, there is only hearsay and speculation.

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
rhino369 5y ago
I wouldn’t trust the CDC or WHO. We need an independent group who don’t have any baggage on this issue. CDC can’t be trusted to even make a simple covid test and they don’t want to admit scientific research killed 20 million people.
- perryizgr8 5y ago
  Sad truth is that CDC/WHO are one of the most competent authorities on the matter, and they have experienced experts in the relevant fields. Only when politics comes into play, that the organisations' actions and intentions are called into question. The ideal thing would be to somehow remove international political considerations from the equation and then ask WHO to conduct an investigation. Of course, the chances of that happening are probably lower than an actually lethal virus leaking from a lab.
sudosysgen 5y ago
It's not a science page on Reddit, the source is a published virologist who himself cites dozens and dozens of sources. I find it odd that people are commenting about how this doesn't inspire confidence, but "rootclaim" as well as an editorialised headline from the telegraph is.

xqcgrek2 5y ago

Snopes and Reddit are not credible.

sudosysgen 5y ago
The source isn't Reddit, it's a published virologist, and he himself cites over a hundred academic sources. Reddit is the medium.
- andreilys 5y ago
  I am very confident that SARS-CoV-2 has no connection to the Wuhan Institute of Virology or any other laboratory. Not genetic engineering, not intentional evolution, not an accidental release. The most plausible scenario, by a landslide, is that SARS-CoV-2 jumped from a bat (or other species) into a human, in the wild. A year later and we are yet to see a zoonotic link, but of course it’s the “most plausible scenario”. The reality is that we will likely never know because it’s not in chinas best interest to allow any real investigation into this.
  - sudosysgen 5y ago
    SARS's zoonotic link was only established in 2017. You can't expect it to be find. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. And it's going to be harder for this virus than SARS. Right now, over a year later, reality is conforming exactly to what you would expect to happen starting from that hypothesis a year ago. So I don't even understand why you're mentioning it, it's not a logical argument.
    - riyadparvez 5y ago
      According to this > Sep 9, 2003 (CIDRAP News) – Chinese scientists found that animals sold at street markets in Guangdong, China, carried a coronavirus nearly identical to the SARS coronavirus, according to a report published recently in Science. > The animal viruses were found in Himalayan palm civets and raccoon dogs, which were sold for food in the markets, according to the report. The findings indicate a route of transmission between species but do not reveal whether these animals are the virus's natural reservoir or contracted it from another source, according to the report. Source [1]. The same thing didn't happen for SARS-CoV2. I believe none of the animals in the wet market has been tested positive for SARS-CoV2 or SARS-CoV2-like viruses [2]. [1] https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2003/09/animals-chinese-markets-carried-sars-virus https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2003/09/animals-... [2] https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/03/26/1021263/bat-covid-coronavirus-cause-origin-wuhan/ https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/03/26/1021263/bat-covi...

perihelions 5y ago

That PhD virologist comes off as not credible at all, as part of their response is to deny the entire possibility of lab leaks in general. Their argument is that industrial accidents are simply caused by incompetence or lack of funding, and WIV is well-funded and run by competent people: therefore, bad things simply cannot happen. Their attitude is fundamentally unserious. https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did_not_come_from_the_wuhan_institute_of/fqpccr1/ https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did... (4.1) >"I say this as someone who has been to these conferences, who knows many scientists who work on dangerous viruses, and work in facilities like the Wuhan Institute of Virology. We virologists know this group, we know about the WIV, and the WIV facilities do not frighten us. We do not view WIV as “unsound” or “risky” or “dangerous” or “incompetent” (76)." >"We’re not worried about BSL4 labs that are well-equipped, well-funded, etc. (like the WIV is)." >[...] "We biosecurity people are also very concerned about new BSL4 labs being built in developing countries in South America and Africa (99). But, you know what’s interesting? The WIV and its researchers are part of these committees that get together and discuss what to do about these challenges. They are part of the people who are helping to decide what is “safe enough” for a BSL4 lab! We here in the US agree with the WIV about what “safe” means (76). And the biggest reason for that is that we here in the United States helped train WIV researchers. We are the ones who taught them how to work with these dangerous viruses (76,100,101)." (There are no buffer overflows in this C code: I'm very competent and experienced and how dare you).

sudosysgen 5y ago
It doesn't seem at all line they're claiming that lab escapes never happen. Just that this particular lab is known for being extremely safe, and that it's therefore unlikely it would have had a leak. For a leak of such a virus to happen from a BSL4 facility that routinely handles much more contagious viruses, you would need incompetence or funding issues, yes.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- andreilys 5y ago

johncena33 5y ago

First of all, if a transmission can happen at a wet market, it can also happen inside a lab. One doesn't need a virology degree to understand something this simple. As a matter of fact that's exactly what happened in a Taiwan lab [1]. [1]: https://fortune.com/2021/12/10/taiwan-investigates-covid-lab-leak-scientist-tests-positive-bite-infected-mouse/ https://fortune.com/2021/12/10/taiwan-investigates-covid-lab...