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I was under the impression that, originally, COVID policy was intended to allow for our collective healthcare infrastructure to spin up an adequate response to

I was under the impression that, originally, COVID policy was intended to allow for our collective healthcare infrastructure to spin up an adequate response to the surges prevalent with the infections and their potential outcomes. Public Health Policy that limited spread did do that while the healthcare industry found best practices, equipment, and medicines which were intended to help those who were potentially infected and required medical attention to get better. Based on the results of this policy, it appears that that the world has solved for SOME of those key pieces but has failed in many others, as evidenced by the inability for some regions to handle the surge in cases, particularly in areas where we are just beginning to again exceed where we were a year ago in case load. Does this mean that COVID policy has failed? Depending on what we're talking about here: no, not in my opinion. What has failed is the ability for the healthcare industry to scale to meet the current caseloads, particularly when they knew what to expect when we might hit levels we are currently seeing and have seen before.

rsynnott 5y ago
Hospitals can only scale up so far in reasonable time; in the rich world, the limiting factor is generally staff, not equipment, and you can't just make new nurses by the tens of thousands in a year or so. In some countries, a policy of restrictions did allow sufficient time to get everyone vaccinated and many people boosted, and that is allowing health services in highly vaccinated areas to hold the line, at least for now. In Ireland, for instance, the hospital system is under some strain, but holding together; 95% of adults are vaccinated and over half of ICU occupancy are unvaccinated. With a lower rate of vaccination, the hospitals would already be overwhelmed. Not even that much lower. The trouble, of course, is that in some wealthy countries, there are significant numbers of people who don't want the vaccine (I suspect more than anticipated by the planners). Some places have under half the adult population vaccinated; at that point, no reasonable expansion of hospital capacity is going to cope with the omicron wave.
alisonkisk 5y ago

rsynnott 5y ago

Hospitals can only scale up so far in reasonable time; in the rich world, the limiting factor is generally staff, not equipment, and you can't just make new nurses by the tens of thousands in a year or so. In some countries, a policy of restrictions did allow sufficient time to get everyone vaccinated and many people boosted, and that is allowing health services in highly vaccinated areas to hold the line, at least for now. In Ireland, for instance, the hospital system is under some strain, but holding together; 95% of adults are vaccinated and over half of ICU occupancy are unvaccinated. With a lower rate of vaccination, the hospitals would already be overwhelmed. Not even that much lower. The trouble, of course, is that in some wealthy countries, there are significant numbers of people who don't want the vaccine (I suspect more than anticipated by the planners). Some places have under half the adult population vaccinated; at that point, no reasonable expansion of hospital capacity is going to cope with the omicron wave.

alisonkisk 5y ago