4 ms·
>We find that low-wind-power events are less frequent in winter than in summer, but the maximum duration is distributed more evenly between months. While short
by pydry 5y ago
>We find that low-wind-power events are less frequent in winter than in summer, but the maximum duration is distributed more evenly between months. While short events are frequent, very long events are much rarer. Every year, a period of around five consecutive days with an average wind capacity factor below 10% occurs, and every ten years a respective period of nearly eight days. These durations decrease if only winter months are considered. The longest event in the data lasts nearly ten days.
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab91e9 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab91e9
In your once in a lifetime event I'd be happy if we used a bit of gas. This is something, after all, that Japan also had to do for years after Fukushima went kaput.
Bear in mind also that demand for heating and transportation can be timeshifted. An Octopus tariff in the UK already allows for this. We've barely scratched the surface of whats possible here because electric grids are slow to evolve to this new reality.
- inglor_cz 5y ago"I'd be happy if we used a bit of gas." Gas alone does not produce electricity. Gas power stations do. This means building enough gas power stations to cover power requirements of the entire country, then having them sitting most of the time idle there, "just in case". This is the core of the problem: wind and solar need to be massively backed up. You cannot rely on them supplying even 5 per cent of their nominal capacity if the weather turns against you. Such a massive backup is eye-wateringly expensive, too. And it consumes concrete and steel, two elements whose production is carbon-intensive.
- pydry 5y ago>This means building enough gas power stations to cover power requirements of the entire country, then having them sitting most of the time idle If you assume: * We dont already have the infrastructure. * Power cant be imported. * Power usage cant be timeshifted. * Power cant be stored in batteries. * 10 day periods without wind and sun are routine. Then yes, it might get expensive.
- tjansen 5y agoWell, then make it 5 days. That still needs more capacity than the global battery production per year.
- drran 5y agoSmart grid can solve this problem, when appliances will report of their needs and abilities to the grid, and then the grid will schedule power delivery to meet the demand.
- tjansen 5y agoWhat kind of appliances can wait for several hours? The only example I can think of are cars that are being charged over night.
- drran 5y agoWater heaters, cars, washing/drying machines, power walls, battery powered devices. Electric teapot, microwave, cooking stove can operate at half of power when demand is very high. They can report to and receive instructions from a smart power meter.
- pydry 5y agoI forgot pumped storage which is apparently 8 TWh https://www.hydropower.org/country-profiles/germany https://www.hydropower.org/country-profiles/germany