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The "Bitcoin energy problem" has always been a short term issue, as it exposes the problem of under-priced fossil fuel that do not yet capture externalities (fo

The "Bitcoin energy problem" has always been a short term issue, as it exposes the problem of under-priced fossil fuel that do not yet capture externalities (fossil fuels are subsidized by governments, and most countries do not implement a carbon tax). Bitcoin comes along and becomes the most profitable way to monetize energy, so of course you have this profit seeking behavior of arbitraging low cost energy for btc. This isn't as big of a problem in the long run because renewable energy from solar, wind, geothermal, are now the cheapest forms of energy, and will probably get even cheaper. This means new capacity from these sources are likely to be built out increasingly in the future, and development would be accelerated by proper pricing of fossil fuels. Combine this with improvements in batteries and other complimentary technologies (solar roofs) and the future of self sustaining, affordable renewable clean energy is very promising. It does not make sense to use fossil fuels for mining in this future when fossil fuel gets priced correctly.

cool_dude85 5y ago
Well then, can you hold off on your bitcoins until the no-carbon future is here please? Today all the carbon dioxide it's putting into the atmosphere is making the planet I live on hotter.
- howdydoo 5y ago
  We'll hold off on our bitcoins if you hold off on your football stadiums and christmas lights. Deal?
  - Graffur 5y ago
    bitcoin bad! and football good! /s
ninkendo 5y ago
Your comment boils down to "Bitcoin is not a problem now, because someday in the future we'll solve this whole clean energy problem and fix global warming." Do you not see how crazy you sound?
- scottiebarnes 5y ago
  Actually its based on facts. I understand not everyone understands cost curves, exponential growth/decay, and the rapid adoption of "new" affordable technologies, but renewable energy is coming and you can't stop it. Renewables were the world’s cheapest source of energy in 2020, new report shows https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/07/renewables-cheapest-energy-source/ https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/07/renewables-cheapest-e... Solar is now ‘cheapest electricity in history’, confirms IEA https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-iea https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricit... Why did renewables become so cheap so fast? https://ourworldindata.org/cheap-renewables-growth https://ourworldindata.org/cheap-renewables-growth
rini17 5y ago
I thought that mining might be usable for heating or regulating a grid, but no, that implies mining will run only part time and only when it is profitable. But this is not the case and will stay so for long time because it is motivated by expected future price increase of crypto. When you expect huge future profit, that motivates you to run it all the time no matter what the cost. Even with subsidized electricity, mining is done at loss more often than profit. We have thus created a monster that can't be tamed merely by removing subsidies. Not to mention yet another reason for mining 24/7 - rising global hashrate makes your equipment quickly obsolete.
bArray 5y ago
> The "Bitcoin energy problem" has always been a short term issue, as it exposes the problem of under-priced fossil fuel that do not yet capture externalities (fossil fuels are subsidized by governments, and most countries do not implement a carbon tax). Bitcoin _fundamentally_ is difficult to mine because it consumes available resources at a rate that takes time. If it becomes easier to mine, they'll just make the problem harder. It will _always_ find some resource limitation that slows mining. If energy is no longer an issue, then one can imagine physical hardware will become the next resource limitation. It just pushes the carbon problem from electric generation to manufacturing. > This isn't as big of a problem in the long run because renewable energy from solar, wind, geothermal, are now the cheapest forms of energy, and will probably get even cheaper. You assume. Soon we will hit against other issues though. Even if electricity generation costs nothing, you still need to implement infrastructure to move it around. In reality this means massive power stations, large cabling that travels long distances, etc. This is not something that gets solved in the short term, it's one of the (many) problems that will slow down the push for EVs too. > Combine this with improvements in batteries and other complimentary technologies (solar roofs) and the future of self sustaining, affordable renewable clean energy is very promising. It does not make sense to use fossil fuels for mining in this future when fossil fuel gets priced correctly. Don't swallow Elon Musk's promises, batteries have not really changed all that much. It's difficult to improve on batteries much further than we already have - hydrogen stores may still be the way forwards (and we may regret abandoning them). Solar roofs are better than solar roads, but fixed-position solar panels that do not track the sun are inefficient compared to those that do. Bare in mind also that most renewable energy is dependant on seasons and/or weather conditions. No sun, no solar power. No wind, no turbine power. No gas, no gas power. You only need to checkout the most recent global energy shortage to see this possibility is very real. (Germany will soon regret turning off their nuclear power stations.) Fossil fuels if anything are currently massively overpriced (at retail value). Checkout how much tax your government currently put on them - it's hardly subsidized. Bare in mind also that the oil supply is artificially controlled, it's very heavily tied into politics.
- scottiebarnes 5y ago
  > Bitcoin _fundamentally_ is difficult to mine because it consumes available resources at a rate that takes time. If it becomes easier to mine, they'll just make the problem harder. It will _always_ find some resource limitation that slows mining. Mining competition is related to price; btc being worth more draws more competition to generate hashes. At some point scale effects occur and there is no longer rapid price growth because volume is large enough (there are no new adopters to bitcoin). Mining ceases to grow at this point, and may actually decrease as block rewards halve. > If energy is no longer an issue, then one can imagine physical hardware will become the next resource limitation. It just pushes the carbon problem from electric generation to manufacturing. I don't know much about SHA2 hashing chipsets but I know there must be some flattening curve where the improvements in efficiency start to flatten and become less worthwhile. I don't see mining chip manufacturing being an existential threat to society. > Even if electricity generation costs nothing, you still need to implement infrastructure to move it around. In reality this means massive power stations, large cabling that travels long distances, etc. You don't, thanks to satellite internet and solar panels. An independent mining operation can sit in the dessert or remote geothermal glacials, entirely self sufficient, beaming up bits to the sky and using its own energy supply.

cool_dude85 5y ago

Well then, can you hold off on your bitcoins until the no-carbon future is here please? Today all the carbon dioxide it's putting into the atmosphere is making the planet I live on hotter.

howdydoo 5y ago
We'll hold off on our bitcoins if you hold off on your football stadiums and christmas lights. Deal?
- Graffur 5y ago
  bitcoin bad! and football good! /s

ninkendo 5y ago

Your comment boils down to "Bitcoin is not a problem now, because someday in the future we'll solve this whole clean energy problem and fix global warming." Do you not see how crazy you sound?

scottiebarnes 5y ago
Actually its based on facts. I understand not everyone understands cost curves, exponential growth/decay, and the rapid adoption of "new" affordable technologies, but renewable energy is coming and you can't stop it. Renewables were the world’s cheapest source of energy in 2020, new report shows https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/07/renewables-cheapest-energy-source/ https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/07/renewables-cheapest-e... Solar is now ‘cheapest electricity in history’, confirms IEA https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-iea https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricit... Why did renewables become so cheap so fast? https://ourworldindata.org/cheap-renewables-growth https://ourworldindata.org/cheap-renewables-growth

rini17 5y ago

I thought that mining might be usable for heating or regulating a grid, but no, that implies mining will run only part time and only when it is profitable. But this is not the case and will stay so for long time because it is motivated by expected future price increase of crypto. When you expect huge future profit, that motivates you to run it all the time no matter what the cost. Even with subsidized electricity, mining is done at loss more often than profit. We have thus created a monster that can't be tamed merely by removing subsidies. Not to mention yet another reason for mining 24/7 - rising global hashrate makes your equipment quickly obsolete.

bArray 5y ago

> The "Bitcoin energy problem" has always been a short term issue, as it exposes the problem of under-priced fossil fuel that do not yet capture externalities (fossil fuels are subsidized by governments, and most countries do not implement a carbon tax). Bitcoin _fundamentally_ is difficult to mine because it consumes available resources at a rate that takes time. If it becomes easier to mine, they'll just make the problem harder. It will _always_ find some resource limitation that slows mining. If energy is no longer an issue, then one can imagine physical hardware will become the next resource limitation. It just pushes the carbon problem from electric generation to manufacturing. > This isn't as big of a problem in the long run because renewable energy from solar, wind, geothermal, are now the cheapest forms of energy, and will probably get even cheaper. You assume. Soon we will hit against other issues though. Even if electricity generation costs nothing, you still need to implement infrastructure to move it around. In reality this means massive power stations, large cabling that travels long distances, etc. This is not something that gets solved in the short term, it's one of the (many) problems that will slow down the push for EVs too. > Combine this with improvements in batteries and other complimentary technologies (solar roofs) and the future of self sustaining, affordable renewable clean energy is very promising. It does not make sense to use fossil fuels for mining in this future when fossil fuel gets priced correctly. Don't swallow Elon Musk's promises, batteries have not really changed all that much. It's difficult to improve on batteries much further than we already have - hydrogen stores may still be the way forwards (and we may regret abandoning them). Solar roofs are better than solar roads, but fixed-position solar panels that do not track the sun are inefficient compared to those that do. Bare in mind also that most renewable energy is dependant on seasons and/or weather conditions. No sun, no solar power. No wind, no turbine power. No gas, no gas power. You only need to checkout the most recent global energy shortage to see this possibility is very real. (Germany will soon regret turning off their nuclear power stations.) Fossil fuels if anything are currently massively overpriced (at retail value). Checkout how much tax your government currently put on them - it's hardly subsidized. Bare in mind also that the oil supply is artificially controlled, it's very heavily tied into politics.

scottiebarnes 5y ago
> Bitcoin _fundamentally_ is difficult to mine because it consumes available resources at a rate that takes time. If it becomes easier to mine, they'll just make the problem harder. It will _always_ find some resource limitation that slows mining. Mining competition is related to price; btc being worth more draws more competition to generate hashes. At some point scale effects occur and there is no longer rapid price growth because volume is large enough (there are no new adopters to bitcoin). Mining ceases to grow at this point, and may actually decrease as block rewards halve. > If energy is no longer an issue, then one can imagine physical hardware will become the next resource limitation. It just pushes the carbon problem from electric generation to manufacturing. I don't know much about SHA2 hashing chipsets but I know there must be some flattening curve where the improvements in efficiency start to flatten and become less worthwhile. I don't see mining chip manufacturing being an existential threat to society. > Even if electricity generation costs nothing, you still need to implement infrastructure to move it around. In reality this means massive power stations, large cabling that travels long distances, etc. You don't, thanks to satellite internet and solar panels. An independent mining operation can sit in the dessert or remote geothermal glacials, entirely self sufficient, beaming up bits to the sky and using its own energy supply.