> half of global shipping. There was a post here just yesterday, of a piece by Bill McKibben on this very topic. 40%. Seems about right to me.[1] > > At this

> half of global shipping. There was a post here just yesterday, of a piece by Bill McKibben on this very topic. 40%. Seems about right to me.[1] > > At this point the proposed bans are on the sale of new vehicles that run on fossil fuels [...] leading to a complete phase-out ... > ... making the policy sound more extreme than it is And the reduction in fossil fuels, too. Gasoline is somewhere between 30% and 40% of total oil consumption (if I am interpreting pages on the IEA's website correctly). There will be a ramp down, perhaps, but not a complete phase-out. The ramp-down could happen slowly, then all at once, though. On the one hand, ICE vehicles will be around for many decades after the bans come into force. On the other, most vehicle miles travelled are travelled by newer vehicles (say up to ten or twelve years old). I think there could be a tipping point after a while, in which the price of gasoline suddenly rises sharply because it's uneconomic to refine the small quantities demanded. All the other components, not so much. There are lots of uses for which there are no good substitutes: industrial chemical feedstocks, ships, roadmaking, off-road construction and agriculture, trains, backup generators, military vehicles, and many more. Diesel, kerosene (jet fuel), naptha, bitumen, etc., will be with use for a long time to come. Let's hope someone comes up with a cheap way of synthesizing them from atmospheric CO2. 1. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29850631 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29850631