4 ms·

I think just as his previous article might have been overly optimistic, this one is overly pessimistic. As the pendulum is in the process of swinging to the oth

by xmprt 5y ago

I think just as his previous article might have been overly optimistic, this one is overly pessimistic. As the pendulum is in the process of swinging to the other extreme, I think we will see a lot of negative events slowing down now that people are seeing the negative consequences of their actions and try to revert course. For example, even though the world is tending towards a worst place in terms of things like climate change, I don't think we are accelerating there.

ncmncm 5y ago
Considering how US food policy continues pushing sugar consumption, driving mortality from secondary effects of liver disease (diabetes, high blood pressure, circulatory disease, cancer metastasis, obesity, gout) and tertiary effects of those, that makes COVID-19 look like, well, flu, he is not pessimistic enough. On the other hand, eliminating sugar (actually, just fructose, and then only with not enough accompanying fiber!) from the US, UK, and Indian and Pakistani diets could be overwhelmingly easier than getting and keeping everybody vaccinated against SARS. Doesn't mean it will happen, though. It is easier to pretend it is not a problem, and blame all the deaths on the tertiary effects.
- xmprt 5y ago
  Vaccinating everyone is a near impossible task but as with most things, you can get almost all the benefits by getting an 80-90% vaccination rate and letting herd immunity take care of the rest.
  - ncmncm 5y ago
    That might work if you could get all the animals vaccinated, too. But they are not being vaccinated at all, and won't be. They will continue innovating new strains on their own initiative. Herd immunity works only for microbes that have species preference. So, herd immunity turns out to be a fond delusion. We can only hope that the mice don't innovate a 40% fatal (in humans) strain as contagious as omicron. We certainly can't prevent it.
    - xmprt 5y ago
      The nice thing about viruses (although maybe not that nice considering we're talking about death) is that as fatality goes up, infectivity generally goes down. Also the virus will also quickly burn through the infected population and so it won't have as many opportunities for asymptomatic spread like with the Coronavirus.
      - ncmncm 5y ago
        It is hard to generalize reliably about viruses because each one relies on a different bag of tricks to be able to work at all. It is just lucky that the fatal ones often also work fast. But measles and smallpox, for two examples, did not self-limit at all effectively, depopulating whole regions. And the ones fatal to us but not to animal carriers completely sidestep the trend, even such as it is. A future strain of SARS hosted in animals can probably be counted on to sidestep that trend.
- Der_Einzige 5y ago
  Fructose in fruit, as are other sugars , are still terrible for you even if you eat fiber. Fruit is not benign in large quantities. It's only saving grace is that fruit generally has far lower sugar and higher useful neutrients than confections
  - ncmncm 5y ago
    Point is that with sufficient fiber, your gut bacteria get most of it, and are harmed not at all, instead of your liver, which is. And, the other sugars are not harmful to your liver in any amount, although sharp spikes of them may not be great for the rest of you. Again, enough fiber mutes those.
sydthrowaway 5y ago
The pandemic will definitely end in 2022
- tempestn 5y ago
  It looked like that would be the case in 2021 before Delta hit. I certainly think it's possible, but I don't think any of us could say when it will "definitely" end at this point.

by xmprt 5y ago

ncmncm 5y ago

Considering how US food policy continues pushing sugar consumption, driving mortality from secondary effects of liver disease (diabetes, high blood pressure, circulatory disease, cancer metastasis, obesity, gout) and tertiary effects of those, that makes COVID-19 look like, well, flu, he is not pessimistic enough. On the other hand, eliminating sugar (actually, just fructose, and then only with not enough accompanying fiber!) from the US, UK, and Indian and Pakistani diets could be overwhelmingly easier than getting and keeping everybody vaccinated against SARS. Doesn't mean it will happen, though. It is easier to pretend it is not a problem, and blame all the deaths on the tertiary effects.

xmprt 5y ago
Vaccinating everyone is a near impossible task but as with most things, you can get almost all the benefits by getting an 80-90% vaccination rate and letting herd immunity take care of the rest.
- ncmncm 5y ago
  That might work if you could get all the animals vaccinated, too. But they are not being vaccinated at all, and won't be. They will continue innovating new strains on their own initiative. Herd immunity works only for microbes that have species preference. So, herd immunity turns out to be a fond delusion. We can only hope that the mice don't innovate a 40% fatal (in humans) strain as contagious as omicron. We certainly can't prevent it.
  - xmprt 5y ago
    The nice thing about viruses (although maybe not that nice considering we're talking about death) is that as fatality goes up, infectivity generally goes down. Also the virus will also quickly burn through the infected population and so it won't have as many opportunities for asymptomatic spread like with the Coronavirus.
    - ncmncm 5y ago
      It is hard to generalize reliably about viruses because each one relies on a different bag of tricks to be able to work at all. It is just lucky that the fatal ones often also work fast. But measles and smallpox, for two examples, did not self-limit at all effectively, depopulating whole regions. And the ones fatal to us but not to animal carriers completely sidestep the trend, even such as it is. A future strain of SARS hosted in animals can probably be counted on to sidestep that trend.
Der_Einzige 5y ago
Fructose in fruit, as are other sugars , are still terrible for you even if you eat fiber. Fruit is not benign in large quantities. It's only saving grace is that fruit generally has far lower sugar and higher useful neutrients than confections
- ncmncm 5y ago
  Point is that with sufficient fiber, your gut bacteria get most of it, and are harmed not at all, instead of your liver, which is. And, the other sugars are not harmful to your liver in any amount, although sharp spikes of them may not be great for the rest of you. Again, enough fiber mutes those.

sydthrowaway 5y ago

The pandemic will definitely end in 2022

tempestn 5y ago
It looked like that would be the case in 2021 before Delta hit. I certainly think it's possible, but I don't think any of us could say when it will "definitely" end at this point.