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How would explain the excess deaths models[1] that often show that if anything the COVID deaths are undercounted? If the current COVID death total isn't accura
by slg 5y ago
How would explain the excess deaths models[1] that often show that if anything the COVID deaths are undercounted?
If the current COVID death total isn't accurate, what would be your ballpark estimates for the real death and case totals in the US?
[1] - https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-...
- nsonha 5y agoI won't be able to explain that, because this is how much explanation given > machine-learning model, which estimates excess deaths for every country on every day since the pandemic began. It is based both on official excess-mortality data and on more than 100 other statistical indicators let me get the premise of this right: they built a "machine learning" model, using empirical data from normal years, and magical "statistical indicators", to predict excess deaths in a time of unprecedented events. Then, when the model does not fit, the conclusion isn't that the "model" is full of shit, but the "COVID deaths are undercounted"?