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The Stanford professor who I saw on a recent lex Friedman podcast confirmed what many people already suspected: the death count is exaggerated because the crite

The Stanford professor who I saw on a recent lex Friedman podcast confirmed what many people already suspected: the death count is exaggerated because the criteria for a Covid death is that a person is dead and also tests positive for Covid regardless of how the person really died. And also that cases were massively undercounted because of the fact that many people never have symptoms bad enough to justify any concern, testing or a hospital visit. That’s what he’s asserting and it’s true. He said when you sample randomly and follow positive testers to their conclusion, the lethality rate is something like 0.02%. I’m sorry that it upsets you to hear something you don’t already agree with

JoeAltmaier 5y ago
It's specious to claim knowledge of things unmeasured? Dial it back a bit there - maybe 'somewhat undercounted'. And is that criteria made up too? Show me.
- supperburg 5y ago
  I don’t need to show you, go listen to the Stanford professor. Lex Fridman podcast in the past week or two. Am I an idiot for believing a current Stanford professor? Is it not a reputable source?
  - TranquilMarmot 5y ago
    > Lex Fridman (pronounced: Freedman) I'm an AI researcher working on autonomous vehicles, human-robot interaction, and machine learning at MIT and beyond. Honestly does not sound too reputable to me on this specific subject matter. Edit: I realize now that you are saying to listen to the podcast guest, not Lex Fridman himself. Is this the episode? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIOGUYOPAsA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIOGUYOPAsA
    - extra88 5y ago
      Probably. From the episode description: "Jay Bhattacharya is a professor of medicine at Stanford University and co-author of the Great Barrington Declaration." "The Great Barrington Declaration […] advocated letting the virus spread in lower-risk groups with the aim of herd immunity, with "focused protection" of those most at risk." [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jay_Bhattacharya https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jay_Bhattacharya
  - saalweachter 5y ago
    0.25% of the US has already died of COVID-19. It doesn't matter who said it, how can 0.02% be a reasonable estimate for the IFR of the disease?
    - josephcsible 5y ago
      This was already explained upthread: "the death count is exaggerated because the criteria for a Covid death is that a person is dead and also tests positive for Covid regardless of how the person really died."
      - CamperBob2 5y ago
        This is a lie, likely a deliberate one. https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-94-percent-covid-among-caus/fact-check-94-of-individuals-with-additional-causes-of-death-still-had-covid-19-idUSKBN25U2IO https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-94-percent-covi... You should go back to the person who told you this lie and ask them why they did it. A simple accounting of excess deaths ( https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm ) is all you need to dispel the notion of a 0.02% fatality rate.
        supperburg 5y ago
        Jay Bhattacharya is a professor of medicine at Stanford University That’s from sep 2020. I think professor Bhattacharya is aware of the numbers.
        CRConrad 5y ago
        > I think professor Bhattacharya is aware of the numbers. Professor Bhattacharya is apparently one of the main instigators of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Barrington_Declaration https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Barrington_Declaration . So I think he is fudging the numbers.
      - CRConrad 5y ago
  - CamperBob2 5y ago
    You're not an idiot for believing the professor, but you could stand to apply more critical thought to the question, and look for additional sources before thoughtlessly propagating what you heard on a podcast. Just because "a professor" says something doesn't mean you should reflexively believe it. As an example, a Stanford professor by the name of Dr. Scott Atlas was a prominent voice within the Trump administration who actively advocated disobedience of public-health orders at the state level. When the professor posted this (since-deleted) tweet: https://i.imgur.com/z0OsMcg.png https://i.imgur.com/z0OsMcg.png .... I wrote his department head. "I thought you should know that some idiot is out there claiming to be associated with your university." They replied, "Agreed, this is irresponsible at best." Funny thing, though. Dr. Atlas is still a Stanford-affiliated professor, more than a year later: https://profiles.stanford.edu/scott-atlas https://profiles.stanford.edu/scott-atlas Tenure is a powerful thing, I guess. Stanford apparently can't distance themselves from this clown, but you and I can and should. That's not who you listened to, by any chance, is it?
    - gjm11 5y ago
      Just out of curiosity, was the phrasing of your letter (or email or whatever) to Stanford a deliberate echo of https://lettersofnote.com/2011/02/14/regarding-your-stupid-complaint/ https://lettersofnote.com/2011/02/14/regarding-your-stupid-c... ?
      - CamperBob2 5y ago
        Yes.
        jacquesm 5y ago
        Kudos. More people should do this. Too many articulate, credentialed idiots out there sucking people into their little evil fantasies.
        supperburg 5y ago
        I’ve told you who he is. What do you think?
slg 5y ago
How would explain the excess deaths models[1] that often show that if anything the COVID deaths are undercounted? If the current COVID death total isn't accurate, what would be your ballpark estimates for the real death and case totals in the US? [1] - https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-...
- nsonha 5y ago
  I won't be able to explain that, because this is how much explanation given > machine-learning model, which estimates excess deaths for every country on every day since the pandemic began. It is based both on official excess-mortality data and on more than 100 other statistical indicators let me get the premise of this right: they built a "machine learning" model, using empirical data from normal years, and magical "statistical indicators", to predict excess deaths in a time of unprecedented events. Then, when the model does not fit, the conclusion isn't that the "model" is full of shit, but the "COVID deaths are undercounted"?

JoeAltmaier 5y ago

It's specious to claim knowledge of things unmeasured? Dial it back a bit there - maybe 'somewhat undercounted'. And is that criteria made up too? Show me.

supperburg 5y ago
I don’t need to show you, go listen to the Stanford professor. Lex Fridman podcast in the past week or two. Am I an idiot for believing a current Stanford professor? Is it not a reputable source?
- TranquilMarmot 5y ago
  > Lex Fridman (pronounced: Freedman) I'm an AI researcher working on autonomous vehicles, human-robot interaction, and machine learning at MIT and beyond. Honestly does not sound too reputable to me on this specific subject matter. Edit: I realize now that you are saying to listen to the podcast guest, not Lex Fridman himself. Is this the episode? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIOGUYOPAsA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIOGUYOPAsA
  - extra88 5y ago
    Probably. From the episode description: "Jay Bhattacharya is a professor of medicine at Stanford University and co-author of the Great Barrington Declaration." "The Great Barrington Declaration […] advocated letting the virus spread in lower-risk groups with the aim of herd immunity, with "focused protection" of those most at risk." [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jay_Bhattacharya https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jay_Bhattacharya
- saalweachter 5y ago
  0.25% of the US has already died of COVID-19. It doesn't matter who said it, how can 0.02% be a reasonable estimate for the IFR of the disease?
  - josephcsible 5y ago
    This was already explained upthread: "the death count is exaggerated because the criteria for a Covid death is that a person is dead and also tests positive for Covid regardless of how the person really died."
    - CamperBob2 5y ago
      This is a lie, likely a deliberate one. https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-94-percent-covid-among-caus/fact-check-94-of-individuals-with-additional-causes-of-death-still-had-covid-19-idUSKBN25U2IO https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-94-percent-covi... You should go back to the person who told you this lie and ask them why they did it. A simple accounting of excess deaths ( https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm ) is all you need to dispel the notion of a 0.02% fatality rate.
      - supperburg 5y ago
        Jay Bhattacharya is a professor of medicine at Stanford University That’s from sep 2020. I think professor Bhattacharya is aware of the numbers.
        CRConrad 5y ago
        > I think professor Bhattacharya is aware of the numbers. Professor Bhattacharya is apparently one of the main instigators of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Barrington_Declaration https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Barrington_Declaration . So I think he is fudging the numbers.
    - CRConrad 5y ago
- CamperBob2 5y ago
  You're not an idiot for believing the professor, but you could stand to apply more critical thought to the question, and look for additional sources before thoughtlessly propagating what you heard on a podcast. Just because "a professor" says something doesn't mean you should reflexively believe it. As an example, a Stanford professor by the name of Dr. Scott Atlas was a prominent voice within the Trump administration who actively advocated disobedience of public-health orders at the state level. When the professor posted this (since-deleted) tweet: https://i.imgur.com/z0OsMcg.png https://i.imgur.com/z0OsMcg.png .... I wrote his department head. "I thought you should know that some idiot is out there claiming to be associated with your university." They replied, "Agreed, this is irresponsible at best." Funny thing, though. Dr. Atlas is still a Stanford-affiliated professor, more than a year later: https://profiles.stanford.edu/scott-atlas https://profiles.stanford.edu/scott-atlas Tenure is a powerful thing, I guess. Stanford apparently can't distance themselves from this clown, but you and I can and should. That's not who you listened to, by any chance, is it?
  - gjm11 5y ago
    Just out of curiosity, was the phrasing of your letter (or email or whatever) to Stanford a deliberate echo of https://lettersofnote.com/2011/02/14/regarding-your-stupid-complaint/ https://lettersofnote.com/2011/02/14/regarding-your-stupid-c... ?
    - CamperBob2 5y ago
      Yes.
      - jacquesm 5y ago
        Kudos. More people should do this. Too many articulate, credentialed idiots out there sucking people into their little evil fantasies.
      - supperburg 5y ago
        I’ve told you who he is. What do you think?

slg 5y ago

How would explain the excess deaths models[1] that often show that if anything the COVID deaths are undercounted? If the current COVID death total isn't accurate, what would be your ballpark estimates for the real death and case totals in the US? [1] - https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-...

nsonha 5y ago
I won't be able to explain that, because this is how much explanation given > machine-learning model, which estimates excess deaths for every country on every day since the pandemic began. It is based both on official excess-mortality data and on more than 100 other statistical indicators let me get the premise of this right: they built a "machine learning" model, using empirical data from normal years, and magical "statistical indicators", to predict excess deaths in a time of unprecedented events. Then, when the model does not fit, the conclusion isn't that the "model" is full of shit, but the "COVID deaths are undercounted"?