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> leading to a complete phase-out [of ICE] possibly as early as 2040 I have a hard time believing this, if it's something that's supposed to happen globally, i

> leading to a complete phase-out [of ICE] possibly as early as 2040 I have a hard time believing this, if it's something that's supposed to happen globally, including for all good transportation, which is a category where I don't remember seeing much electric vehicles. And as for it happening globally, that'd mean everywhere on the globe, there'd be enough electricity to supply all the needs for transportation and agriculture.

InvaderFizz 5y ago
If you read it in a more realistic fashion, and see the implementations that are happening today, it makes much more sense. Governments are rolling out policies that vehicles manufactured after 2030/2035/2040, etc will not be eligible for vehicle registration. This makes much more sense than banning existing fleets, as the vast majority of any car fleet will be replaced over the period of a decade. (Average US car lifespan is 12 years). This serves as a slow ramp up time, as well as less political pushback. Will the electric grids be able to keep up? Mostly. Will electricity prices increase as a result of demand that is costly to build new generation sources to satisfy, almost certainly. Most of these "green" policies are taxing those with little upfront capital to invest (bottom two quintiles) and subsidizing those with capital. Are these policies going to impact me or my family? Not really. I'm specifically investing tens of thousands of dollars in my home to reduce my grid costs to negligible levels and make my home non-grid dependent. The grid is mediocre, at best, where I live. Also, there is no net metering, so I need batteries to service a large portion of my non-solar generating hours.
- baud147258 5y ago
  so you really think that all motor vehicle in Africa will be electric? All in Middle-East, like Afghanistan or Pakistan? I'm not really talking about Western countries, where I can see it happen, but the rest of the world
  - InvaderFizz 5y ago
    No, but I also have yet to see their governments making announcements that they will be banning ICE vehicles. The long tail for ICE vehicles, even in western countries, will be decades after the last new one is sold. The 1992 Nissan Sentra was still being manufactured and sold in Mexico until 2017 as the Nissan Tsuru. It was finally retired as Mexico has moved upmarket enough on the global scale that the government can do things like ban a $7k car due to safety concerns. Similarly, I expect ICE vehicles to still dominate until such time as solar becomes so incredibly cheap and electric cars destined for Pakistan can be plugged directly into the PV array.

InvaderFizz 5y ago

If you read it in a more realistic fashion, and see the implementations that are happening today, it makes much more sense. Governments are rolling out policies that vehicles manufactured after 2030/2035/2040, etc will not be eligible for vehicle registration. This makes much more sense than banning existing fleets, as the vast majority of any car fleet will be replaced over the period of a decade. (Average US car lifespan is 12 years). This serves as a slow ramp up time, as well as less political pushback. Will the electric grids be able to keep up? Mostly. Will electricity prices increase as a result of demand that is costly to build new generation sources to satisfy, almost certainly. Most of these "green" policies are taxing those with little upfront capital to invest (bottom two quintiles) and subsidizing those with capital. Are these policies going to impact me or my family? Not really. I'm specifically investing tens of thousands of dollars in my home to reduce my grid costs to negligible levels and make my home non-grid dependent. The grid is mediocre, at best, where I live. Also, there is no net metering, so I need batteries to service a large portion of my non-solar generating hours.

baud147258 5y ago
so you really think that all motor vehicle in Africa will be electric? All in Middle-East, like Afghanistan or Pakistan? I'm not really talking about Western countries, where I can see it happen, but the rest of the world
- InvaderFizz 5y ago
  No, but I also have yet to see their governments making announcements that they will be banning ICE vehicles. The long tail for ICE vehicles, even in western countries, will be decades after the last new one is sold. The 1992 Nissan Sentra was still being manufactured and sold in Mexico until 2017 as the Nissan Tsuru. It was finally retired as Mexico has moved upmarket enough on the global scale that the government can do things like ban a $7k car due to safety concerns. Similarly, I expect ICE vehicles to still dominate until such time as solar becomes so incredibly cheap and electric cars destined for Pakistan can be plugged directly into the PV array.