I'd argue with #1. It was obvious at the start that this thing could at best be slowed, not stopped, and that conditions on the ground after would be the same

I'd argue with #1. It was obvious at the start that this thing could at best be slowed, not stopped, and that conditions on the ground after would be the same as before. And thus the logic of lockdown #1 lead inevitably to #2, and so on. That was where the "experts" should have been saying "look, there really isn't a lot we can do, outside of drastic measures that could do as much harm as help." But everyone wanted to Do Something, and the experts didn't want to seem impotent, and we proceeded thoughtlessly into a mistake.