4 ms·
Perhaps a bit more epistemically humility is in order. For all of us, myself included. That said, even highly adversarial climate models greated almost half a
by freen 5y ago
Perhaps a bit more epistemically humility is in order.
For all of us, myself included.
That said, even highly adversarial climate models greated almost half a century ago have tremendous predictive power.
Large systems are modelable. Not with any degree of precision, of course, but a high degree of accuracy.
Otherwise insurance companies wouldn’t exist.
- sampo 5y ago> That said, even highly adversarial climate models greated almost half a century ago have tremendous predictive power. Yes. About the warming effect of doubling the atmospheric CO2 (Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity): Manabe and Wetherald 1967, said 2.3°C. The Charney Report 1979, said 3.0 ± 1.5°C. IPCC AR6 2021, says 3.0°C (2.5 to 4.0). https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/atsc/24/3/1520-0469_1967_024_0241_teotaw_2_0_co_2.xml https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/atsc/24/3/1520-04... https://www.bnl.gov/envsci/schwartz/charney_report1979.pdf https://www.bnl.gov/envsci/schwartz/charney_report1979.pdf https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter_07.pdf#page=118 https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6...