I think you're mostly correct. And this is a problem with the idea of trying to model for this given all the variables and outcomes. Climate change should be

I think you're mostly correct. And this is a problem with the idea of trying to model for this given all the variables and outcomes. Climate change should be as simple as: 1) we have pretty decent models and data that show that man is having a considerable impact on weather/climate. 2) we live in a fragile system and are fragile creatures, between us and mother nature we lose every single time, and we lose big, 3) do you really want to find out where this ends? I think most people just look around and see that things are changing. The attribution studies are sort of a moot point. It's the actual change that is going to make us act. Already is, a little. Nobody is going to understand all the weaseling around this could have occurred by chance but we think it's more likely to occur because we modeled it but our models can't predict those low frequency really severe events so we've modeled less severe events and are guessing. If we do start seeing more and more serious weather events (like we seem to be) there's going to be some drastic action (too late?) and if we won't then I guess we're ok by some luck.