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Looks to me Sabine made a fairly elementary mistake towards the end. She mentions 3 probability distribution curves, 2 model produced (blue and red) and one emp
by credit_guy 5y ago
Looks to me Sabine made a fairly elementary mistake towards the end. She mentions 3 probability distribution curves, 2 model produced (blue and red) and one empirical (green). She forgot to mention a fourth one, the empirical-preindustrial. In any case, you'd like to be able to measure the ratio of empirical distributions, but let's say that's difficult because of data retention.
So, instead of having the actual ratio x/y you have a ratio of proxies, x'/y'. This ratio could be both higher and lower than x/y. She claimed it can only be lower, and that's not quite true.
- stkdump 5y agoI also thought that. But on second thought I agree with her analysis. The reason that y and y' are different is the same that x and x' are different. It is a problem of lacking resolution, so it will always underestimate more on the higher value, at least if you do enough simulations to get enough samples.