> you are modeling a complex chaotic system, you just cannot do it accurately You can't really model anything "accurately", but you can assign a subjective (pr

> you are modeling a complex chaotic system, you just cannot do it accurately You can't really model anything "accurately", but you can assign a subjective (probability is subjective) probability to certain outcomes based off an analysis of your model, and what in your best judgement are the correct parameters. This is why the papers containing uncertainty analysis of varying quality, the press releases will have some handwaving, and the articles in the newspapers will contain nothing of the sort.