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>Here's the problem with climate change modeling, you are modeling a complex chaotic system, you just cannot do it accurately Its more than that. Large models
by twofornone 5y ago
>Here's the problem with climate change modeling, you are modeling a complex chaotic system, you just cannot do it accurately
Its more than that. Large models have hundreds of adjustable parameters, which each may be tweaked within reasonable ranges to simultaneously backfit historic data and potentially get any kind of future result. It's very easy to get biased outputs which look totally reasonable, which is especially dangerous if the discipline is subject to a rigid orthodoxy.
- klyrs 5y agoThe orthodoxy's stance has been to make the most mild predictions possible for decades. And now, we're seeing worse-than-predicted extreme weather events. Go figure.
- twofornone 5y agoMild perhaps, but still leaning in one direction. I don't know that there's been any evidence of more severe weather on average, other than record breaking heat which typically has some x% attribution to climate change (i.e. it would have happened regardless, e.g. recent warm weather in Texas).
- klyrs 5y ago> I don't know that there's been any evidence of more severe weather on average... Have you looked? Because the data is available. https://e360.yale.edu/digest/extreme-weather-events-have-increased-significantly-in-the-last-20-years https://e360.yale.edu/digest/extreme-weather-events-have-inc...