14 ms·
Everyone in June 2020 was too busy assuming the best case scenario to plan for disruption. I never really understood the human capacity for self-delusion until
by labster 5y ago
Everyone in June 2020 was too busy assuming the best case scenario to plan for disruption. I never really understood the human capacity for self-delusion until 2020. I knew we’d have two years of lockdowns in February 2020, unless we lucked into a drug that treated it (despite not having a drug for SARS-CoV-1). Even the logistics for distributing a vaccine is hard, and takes months to set up. I have no idea how people can ignore evidence they dislike so easily.
- vibrato2 5y ago
- yarky 5y ago> I have no idea how people can ignore evidence they dislike so easily. Isn’t this the natural response to the unknown? Denial? I guess not everyone likes Bayes’ theorem!
- LodeOfCode 5y agoEven with Bayes' theorem, if your prior is zero, you can ignore any evidence - no matter how strong - that doesn't absolutely require the hypothesis to be true.
- yarky 5y agoThat’s why they say Bayesians can’t be atheists by definition. At least that’s how all atheists in my stats 101 class starting calling themselves agnostic. Another way to put it I learnt in a finance class : financial models behave alright, the problem comes from our lack of imagination, i.e. assigning a null probability to a future event :/
- astrange 5y agoBayesians are atheists, they just happen to believe in Roko's Basilisk, which obviously is nothing like a reinvention of the devil. Remember not to think of it since we can't prove it won't torture an infinite number of clones of you forever!
- labster 5y agohttps://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Roko%27s_basilisk https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Roko%27s_basilisk There, I just sent another 50 souls to rationalist hell.
- rdtwo 5y agoThat’s just how American administrators work. The same thing happens at my company.