3 ms·

Ok. this is from wsj.com "Omicron mortality is likely around 0.2%, roughly in line with seasonal flu." https://www.wsj.com/articles/omicron-variant-may-end-up-

Ok. this is from wsj.com "Omicron mortality is likely around 0.2%, roughly in line with seasonal flu." https://www.wsj.com/articles/omicron-variant-may-end-up-saving-lives-infection-antibodies-spread-sick-covid-19-coronavirus-hospitalization-death-vaccine-11641153969 https://www.wsj.com/articles/omicron-variant-may-end-up-savi... Pretty close to my back of the napkin calculations.

odonnellryan 5y ago
Way more people will get omicron than the flu.
gpm 5y ago
I have no real problems with imagining that omicron's IFR is around that, it's a reasonable number. I just have severe problems with the way you reached it, it's pure coincidence that you reached something likely in the right order of magnitude. Your article is in the opinion section, not written by any sort of doctor but some sort sort of investor (and incidentally substantial republican donor), that's not a source I would take seriously... Author's wikipedia page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_D._Arnott https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_D._Arnott
onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago
You can look up actual Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) for Omicron: https://www.healthdata.org/special-analysis/omicron-and-waning-immunity https://www.healthdata.org/special-analysis/omicron-and-wani...
- wrycoder 5y ago
  That’s not actual. The paper is about modeled and estimated scenarios.
justin66 5y ago
> “Omicron mortality is likely around 0.2%, roughly in line with seasonal flu." Like Constable Bob, people underestimate influenza at their own peril. More to the point, if the numbers indicate lethality comparable to a bad strain of influenza and transmissibility comparable to measles, we’re in a very bad situation. Even before all the data is in, the number of hospitalizations we’re seeing alone signifies a bad situation.

3 ms·

Ok. this is from wsj.com "Omicron mortality is likely around 0.2%, roughly in line with seasonal flu." https://www.wsj.com/articles/omicron-variant-may-end-up-

by fourseventy 5y ago

odonnellryan 5y ago
Way more people will get omicron than the flu.
gpm 5y ago
I have no real problems with imagining that omicron's IFR is around that, it's a reasonable number. I just have severe problems with the way you reached it, it's pure coincidence that you reached something likely in the right order of magnitude. Your article is in the opinion section, not written by any sort of doctor but some sort sort of investor (and incidentally substantial republican donor), that's not a source I would take seriously... Author's wikipedia page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_D._Arnott https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_D._Arnott
onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago
You can look up actual Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) for Omicron: https://www.healthdata.org/special-analysis/omicron-and-waning-immunity https://www.healthdata.org/special-analysis/omicron-and-wani...
- wrycoder 5y ago
  That’s not actual. The paper is about modeled and estimated scenarios.
justin66 5y ago
> “Omicron mortality is likely around 0.2%, roughly in line with seasonal flu." Like Constable Bob, people underestimate influenza at their own peril. More to the point, if the numbers indicate lethality comparable to a bad strain of influenza and transmissibility comparable to measles, we’re in a very bad situation. Even before all the data is in, the number of hospitalizations we’re seeing alone signifies a bad situation.