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Thank you. The articles about this problem constantly neglect those ambiguities of the problem. I'm not arguing that people are good with probabilites (many are
by Tarsul 5y ago
Thank you. The articles about this problem constantly neglect those ambiguities of the problem. I'm not arguing that people are good with probabilites (many are not), I'm arguing that the Monthy Hall problem has been overstated as a problem about understanding probabilities when in reality it's more a "understanding/articulating the premise correctly"-problem. Which is why I'm of the opinion that article writers should leave Monthy Hall alone in the future and write about different things. Or maybe someone should make a case study where the participants have to play a Monty Hall game and afterwards answer in a questionnaire why they chose whatever they did. Which would probably depend A LOT on how well the experiment would've been explained at the start, but you could test if the participants understood it in the questionnaire. That way you could finally have a more sophisticated answer about whether this problem has any merit regarding behavioral biases.