> Neither China nor New Zealand have implemented anything resembling a successful strategy in anything but the very short-term. I think New Zealand was free fr

> Neither China nor New Zealand have implemented anything resembling a successful strategy in anything but the very short-term. I think New Zealand was free from Covid for maybe 1 year? I wouldn't call that short-term. While many countries were locked down, they were enjoying parties and festivals. If they would've kept themselves isolated from the rest of the world, they'd still be Covid-free. > In such a scenario, you're correct that spreading in the community will likely be less acute Yes, so that was the point. Lockdowns work to reduce spreading. We are in agreement. > , but spread within households will likely be more acute. Spreading within households would only occur for those households containing an infected person. This wouldn't be a very large percentage of the total households. 2 ~ 4 weeks later those households would've been recovered. A significant reduction would've been achieved. But it would come at great costs. And would only delay the inevitable once everything opens up again.