First, what do we mean by a “bubble?” Let’s define it as a steep rise in price of an asset, fueled by FOMO, without enough underlying value to justify the asset

First, what do we mean by a “bubble?” Let’s define it as a steep rise in price of an asset, fueled by FOMO, without enough underlying value to justify the asset price inflation. You mention a lot of asset classes, and there are big differences, so let’s start with the most risky. In my view, there was in 2021, and still in 2022, a bubble in high risk assets like crypto, meme stocks, unprofitable tech, and junk bonds. These prices have already come down considerably, but I do not believe they are done. You can look at the ETF charts of MEME, ARKK, and JNK to get a sense of the last three assets. Home prices have skyrocketed, but because of rising incomes and exceptionally low 30Y mortgage rates, monthly payments are actually very low historically. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=KFhj https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=KFhj Stocks are very mixed. There is a set of stocks that have been pummeled all 2021, but pay high dividends, and are now back in favor. Look at the last couple of weeks charts for T, DOW, and TSE. This is a rotation to more safe stocks that have cash flows and pay high dividends. But ultimately, my view is that there is too much cash earning negative real interest rates in high income households for a 2001-2003 style drawdown. During the pandemic (through September 2021), the average household in the top 1% of income earners went from $2m cash savings to $3m. The top quintile of earners has, in aggregate, an extra $2.75 trillion in extra pandemic cash. I don’t see the case for a huge broad drawdown with that much cash sitting around earning negative real rates in savings and money market accounts. As far as your last statement, you should be far more afraid the Fed tightens too rapidly.