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The trick with identifying bubble is not to realize there is one, but to identify what will make it pop. This latter problem is much harder, and the former, as
by it_does_follow 5y ago
The trick with identifying bubble is not to realize there is one, but to identify what will make it pop. This latter problem is much harder, and the former, as we get deeper into the limits of our current system, becomes so obvious it's not worth talking about.
Of course our everyday world is disconnected from reality (this is what a bubble ultimately is after all). Talk to anyone in any field and they'll all tell you the same thing: everything is a house of cards! it's insane that things are still running!
Crypto is insane, ad tech is insane, the stock market is insane, our ability to reason about the pandemic has entirely gone off the rails, democracy (or the illusion of it) is on the verge of collapse around the globe, nothing about our very way of life is remotely sustainable yet we continue to push for faster and faster development. We are in a bubble of the grandest scale imaginable. Some people deny this, but there are plenty of people who realize that this is true.
But pointing out that bubble is not interesting, at least not to me. Depending on how much attention you pay things have been insane for a long time, they don't make sense and the keep on going. Even some post-marxists theorists at one point started to accept that maybe there is no reality in our neoliberal capitalist world.
Reality does exist, our big, big bubble will pop, eventually. If that happens in 1000 years it's not really interesting, if it happens in 1000 days it will be mind blowing. The real interesting question isn't to point out that things don't make sense (they don't) but to start looking at when does the shit hit the fan.
If you watch the Big Short you see that the crucial part of that narrative isn't realizing there is a bubble, but realizing precisely when and how it will pop. Right now I don't think anyone has a good answer to these questions for our current bubble or any subset of it. Take crypto, most of us here believe it to be to some degree a scam, but when and how does that scam come to an end? Pointing out a bubble is irrational doesn't make it pop.
- sergiomattei 5y ago> democracy (or the illusion of it) is on the verge of collapse around the globe I've seen this narrative being spun up lately and I'm unsure what's causing the alarmism.
- lotsofpulp 5y agoOne piece of evidence might be the invasion of various government buildings a year ago to try and overturn an election in a country that was considered to have one of the most stable societies, and nearly 50% of voters supporting it. Another might be the fall of various democracies back into dictatorship such as Hungary and Turkey.
- sergiomattei 5y agoPerhaps I’m naive but these don’t necessarily dictate the fall of the liberal order.
- lotsofpulp 5y agoI was used to the level of civility from the 1980s to mid 2010s (my lifespan), and I consider it to be a material change in atmosphere. Perceived trajectory is perhaps even more important than one’s current position. So if you are used to a few decades of a rosy outlook, and then a few events start trending in the opposite direction one after another, I can see it being cause for one to think an inflection point has been passed.