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The thing you seem to be missing is that there's no one number that's a meaningful limit for all purposes. What probability you accept as significant should de
by kqr 5y ago
The thing you seem to be missing is that there's no one number that's a meaningful limit for all purposes.
What probability you accept as significant should depend entirely on how you plan to use the results. Something with a p value of a staggering 70 % (i.e. it's more likely not true than true) is significant if the payoff is good when it's true, and the cost is small when it's not true.
And 70 % is very far from 5 %!
Then again, if the payoff is tiny compared to the cost, you might ask for a p-value of less than 0.01 %, in order for it to make sense to take the chance on it.
Think like a poker player: a hand that has 1/4 chance of winning needs better than a 3-to-1 payout when it wins to be playable. Conversely, when the pot offers you a 3-to-1 payout, you better make sure your hand has more than a 1/4 chance of winning.
- robotresearcher 5y agoI understand and agree with that. Pascal’s Wager is the extreme example: unlimited upside makes the likelihood irrelevant.