> Now it's true that they don't get into detail about the estimate That's one way to put it. I would say they declare it and offer no basis or detail whatsoeve

> Now it's true that they don't get into detail about the estimate That's one way to put it. I would say they declare it and offer no basis or detail whatsoever! I agree with your point that stating 70% vs some made up precision is a (small) sign of integrity in conveying uncertainty, as opposed to the parent's comment coming to the opposite conclusion.