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The reason why you need to look at what households pay is because the electricity companies are the ones who need to deal with the volatility and what they char
by rsj_hn 5y ago
The reason why you need to look at what households pay is because the electricity companies are the ones who need to deal with the volatility and what they charge to customers is the price of reliable energy. Wholesale prices are very volatile, but residential prices are much more stable, reflecting an average of wholesale prices. So it is better to sample them than to sample the random noise of wholesale prices.
I also disagree thoroughly with the idea that you can take 3 samples from statistical noise and deduce an average, as you have done.
I also think it's laughable that natural gas prices are controlled by Putin. That's a deep rabbit hole you've fallen into, as it's a global market, and natural gas prices respond to general supply and demand, not the dictates of Putin "squeezing" anyone. In particular, when there is less wind or Europe takes a coal plant offline, for example, then demand for natural gas goes up. Now what do you think happens to the price when demand goes up? The idea that high natural gas prices are dictated by some shadowy enemy, rather than lack of substitutes such as wind, oil, and coal, is not a good analysis of the problem. Frankly it sounds a lot like those who says inflation is caused by "corporate greed" rather than an expansion of the money supply.
In general, please avoid blaming changes to prices on political enemies, as that's pure misinformation. It does not elucidate or explain any actual cause of price changes. It literally makes people less informed, less able to understand the world around them. It's the opposite of what we should be trying to do.
- tialaramex 5y ago> The reason why you need to look at what households pay is because the electricity companies are the ones who need to deal with the volatility and what they charge to customers is the price of reliable energy. Nope. The price households pay is "capped" by government policy. Bread and circuses my friend. The result of electricity companies being unable to "deal with the volatility" is that they go bankrupt, if you'd followed that Ogem link it probably highlighted that it has information for UK consumers worried what happens when their supplier goes bankrupt, as huge numbers have (the answer is, in very short term future, nothing important since of course the retail electricity companies don't actually supply any electricity to anybody, they're just an artificial construct). > I also disagree thoroughly with the idea that you can take 3 samples from statistical noise and deduce an average, as you have done. I linked Ofgem's site which shows you all this data over an extended period, I just gave you three examples to save on reading, and you... averaged them and then complained this is statistical noise. > I also think it's laughable that natural gas prices are controlled by Putin. Laughable or not, Putin in practice controls the Russian company Gazprom which supplies most of Europe's natural gas. That company chose to supply only the bare minimum of what was contracted, even though its buyers would like to buy closer to the upper end of their contract range. Because politically this is in Putin's interest. Now of course Britain, far from Russia and with its own oil fields and other sources, is not directly depending on Russia for gas, unlike several other important European countries, however, you correctly notice that supply and demand influences pricing. For Britain's neighbour's who can't get Russian gas the British gas is suddenly very attractive, raising its prices, and thus we're back to where we began, Putin is ultimately why you can see that big spike in the Ofgem charts that you are pretending is "just noise"...