> This is a big contributor to why markets perform so well in my humble opinion. People who see past the gambler's fallacy to the actual odds of things working

> This is a big contributor to why markets perform so well in my humble opinion. People who see past the gambler's fallacy to the actual odds of things working get rewarded, and the people who assume the current leader must be doing something different and better than the competition get punished. The problem with markets is that rewarding the people who can predict the market correctly isn't a particularly useful end result. What you wanted to happen is for the people who are best able to predict the market to determine the 'fair' price, but that's usually only guaranteed as a steady state which fails as soon as a market is even remotely volatile.