> I think one thing that your explanation is missing is that a skilled basketball player has technique. The reason he sinks 50 3 pointers in a row is because he

> I think one thing that your explanation is missing is that a skilled basketball player has technique. The reason he sinks 50 3 pointers in a row is because he has a technique that minimizes variance and muscle memory that allows him to move in a repeatable and predictable way. The only way the player, and everyone else, knows he has technique because it is obvious right away when the ball goes in the hoop. The point of the author's weblog post is that this instantaneous feedback generally does not occur with evaluating returns. One may have to wait weeks/months/years to see if a particular strategy works / will work out.