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>People don't like to talk about what the food supply looks like under a zero emissions scenario with our current nitrogen productions methods. I'd have to run

>People don't like to talk about what the food supply looks like under a zero emissions scenario with our current nitrogen productions methods. I'd have to run the numbers... but offhand I'd guess it just means nitrogen gets 2.5x more expensive. (Call it 2-10x if you want some padding) That doesn't even mean food gets 2.5x more expensive, only that the percentage of costs due to nitrogen go up that much. I think this is such a non-issue.

elil17 5y ago
Absolutely true. Food inflation in the US is about the same as average inflation. We’re not paying more for food in comparison with other goods than we were a year ago.
- sremani 5y ago
  We are evaluating the an upstream input cost and possible downstream effects. So, the consequences of high urea prices today will vividly show up sometime in the latter part of this year.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - elil17 5y ago
    If that was true we would have seen a big spike in grain futures around September/October (when this data was published). Grain futures are up but the big spikes were in December, indicating that urea prices are not the cause. According to some articles I’ve read targeted towards farmers [1], they are able to compensate by using less fertilizer-dependent crops. So, we can expect small price hikes and major shifts towards using soybeans in place of corn where possible. [1] example: https://www.agriculture.com/markets/analysis/crops/fertilizer-dilemma-has-farmers-on-edge-analyst-says https://www.agriculture.com/markets/analysis/crops/fertilize...
PeterisP 5y ago
It's also worth noting that in the first world for "food-as-it's-consumed" the share of agriculture is just 10%-20% (depending on how it's consumed) of the final value, the majority of the cost comes from processing, transportation, retail, cooking and service or delivery; so if the price of agricultural products leaving the farmer would double, the increase in total price would not be as big. Of course, the poorer consumers in third world with actual problems with food security would bear the full effect of such a price increase.
- openasocket 5y ago
  It would impact poorer consumers, though not evenly. The population facing the most food insecurity issues, subsistence farmers, would be largely unaffected, since they generally aren't using artificial fertilizer.

elil17 5y ago

Absolutely true. Food inflation in the US is about the same as average inflation. We’re not paying more for food in comparison with other goods than we were a year ago.

sremani 5y ago
We are evaluating the an upstream input cost and possible downstream effects. So, the consequences of high urea prices today will vividly show up sometime in the latter part of this year.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- elil17 5y ago
  If that was true we would have seen a big spike in grain futures around September/October (when this data was published). Grain futures are up but the big spikes were in December, indicating that urea prices are not the cause. According to some articles I’ve read targeted towards farmers [1], they are able to compensate by using less fertilizer-dependent crops. So, we can expect small price hikes and major shifts towards using soybeans in place of corn where possible. [1] example: https://www.agriculture.com/markets/analysis/crops/fertilizer-dilemma-has-farmers-on-edge-analyst-says https://www.agriculture.com/markets/analysis/crops/fertilize...

PeterisP 5y ago

It's also worth noting that in the first world for "food-as-it's-consumed" the share of agriculture is just 10%-20% (depending on how it's consumed) of the final value, the majority of the cost comes from processing, transportation, retail, cooking and service or delivery; so if the price of agricultural products leaving the farmer would double, the increase in total price would not be as big. Of course, the poorer consumers in third world with actual problems with food security would bear the full effect of such a price increase.

openasocket 5y ago
It would impact poorer consumers, though not evenly. The population facing the most food insecurity issues, subsistence farmers, would be largely unaffected, since they generally aren't using artificial fertilizer.