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This a huge venerability in our supply chain. If we run out of DEF urea, trucking will grind to a halt. I hope engine makers like Cummins and Detroit have conti

This a huge venerability in our supply chain. If we run out of DEF urea, trucking will grind to a halt. I hope engine makers like Cummins and Detroit have contingency plans where they could release a software patch for their engines that would temporarily bypass the DEF requirement. However, I doubt they have any contingency plan and this is actually a huge venerability that I guarantee our enemies know of.

yardie 5y ago
It's an open secret you can code out DEF on some diesel VWs. The older TDI Touaregs that were fixed during Dieselgate are nearing the end of their 120k mile warranty and owners are recoding the ECU to ignore DEF warnings rather than maintain or repair them. I'm sure the same could be done for Cummins and Detroit.
- selimthegrim 5y ago
  Uh, doesn’t the state plug into their ECU for emissions inspections?
  - yardie 5y ago
    If you mean the poorly engineered OBD port most don’t. They may run an exhaust probe and visual inspection of the CEL and safety equipment.
kragen 5y ago
As long as price controls aren't imposed, there's no danger of a DEF shortage. The price has gone from US$250/tonne (25¢/kg) to US$1000/tonne (US$1/kg). Trucks consume perhaps 1 kg of urea per 100 km. Even at US$10/kg it wouldn't grind trucking to a halt, just raise the price a little.
- djrogers 5y ago
  Adding $0.10/KM (side note, why are we doing math with USD and metric distances?) isn't raising the price 'a little' - it's over a 5% increase in trucking costs. Do you think most trucking operations have much more than a 5% margin in their businesses right now, or that if they did, they'd just eat such a huge increase? [1] (warning - math required, source is in $/Mile) https://www.paragonrouting.com/en-us/blog/post/want-optimize-your-fleet-know-your-average-trucking-cost-mile/ https://www.paragonrouting.com/en-us/blog/post/want-optimize...
  - kragen 5y ago
    No, I think they'd raise their prices 7%, so shipping things over land would cost 7% more.

yardie 5y ago

It's an open secret you can code out DEF on some diesel VWs. The older TDI Touaregs that were fixed during Dieselgate are nearing the end of their 120k mile warranty and owners are recoding the ECU to ignore DEF warnings rather than maintain or repair them. I'm sure the same could be done for Cummins and Detroit.

selimthegrim 5y ago
Uh, doesn’t the state plug into their ECU for emissions inspections?
- yardie 5y ago
  If you mean the poorly engineered OBD port most don’t. They may run an exhaust probe and visual inspection of the CEL and safety equipment.

kragen 5y ago

As long as price controls aren't imposed, there's no danger of a DEF shortage. The price has gone from US$250/tonne (25¢/kg) to US$1000/tonne (US$1/kg). Trucks consume perhaps 1 kg of urea per 100 km. Even at US$10/kg it wouldn't grind trucking to a halt, just raise the price a little.

djrogers 5y ago
Adding $0.10/KM (side note, why are we doing math with USD and metric distances?) isn't raising the price 'a little' - it's over a 5% increase in trucking costs. Do you think most trucking operations have much more than a 5% margin in their businesses right now, or that if they did, they'd just eat such a huge increase? [1] (warning - math required, source is in $/Mile) https://www.paragonrouting.com/en-us/blog/post/want-optimize-your-fleet-know-your-average-trucking-cost-mile/ https://www.paragonrouting.com/en-us/blog/post/want-optimize...
- kragen 5y ago
  No, I think they'd raise their prices 7%, so shipping things over land would cost 7% more.