3 ms·

Looks like the data points have more to do with how many weather recording stations a region has than anything else.

refurb 5y ago
I’m not sure how to interpret the map either. The web bulb temperature of the top 0.1% of hot and humid days over a 38 year period?
- bart_spoon 5y ago
  Yeah its a very poor visualization. Its difficult to tell if it is showing the hottest wet bulb temperature of an area over the time period, or the most frequent, or what.
  - roter 5y ago
    It is (likely) showing the 0.1% percentile of measured wet-bulb temperatures. i.e. in a given year, we expect 0.1% of the wet-bulbs to exceed this temperature or approximately 8 to 9 hours in a year.
ospzfmbbzr 5y ago
Dangerous to give any credence to this tripe. Models like the one mentioned (without references) are created by humans and the parameters they use are arbitrary. Scientists make some assumptions about parameters and run them through the system and get some results. They do this many times and vary the parameters to see what happens. It's the change in results vs the change in parameters that is the interesting stuff. Claiming they can predict the future is dishonest. Why do all references to climate models refer to 'The models or model'? It's like they are supposed to be oracles -- they are NOT. There is not just one or a few. They do not all show the same things. Models are a useful way to learn, but picking one result, not showing any work or stating assumptions, and then publishing click-bait referencing it is not ethical. > Climate models project the first 35°C TW occurrences by the mid-21st century. Which Climate models? Oh sorry it's the ONE so I won't question further. It could never be wrong. Do other models show anything different? Oh there are no others I see. What parameters were used? What datasets? There are zero references to any of this in the original paper but that didn't slow down the click-bait climate-fear-porn author who is not a scientist but a corporate communications person. > Looks like the data points have more to do with how many weather recording stations a region has than anything else. As others have said the 'survey data' they do reference seems to be mostly about how many stations a region has. Who funded this? > The study was supported by NOAA’s Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) Program. Big government looking to get bigger. For my part I have many years experience designing and running HPC scientific computing models in related domains.
- andrewclunn 5y ago
  Friendly hint. If you are skeptical of climate change dogma, point out the clearest / most obvious failures in the individual paper / article / claim being presented. Do not go further by offering conclusions extrapolated from that. That enables you to engage people's critical thinking without engaging their ideology.
  - ospzfmbbzr 5y ago
    Good point. I had a coffee and just let it rip when I saw that article this morning.
- mturmon 5y ago
  You say this work is “without references,” and mock the research and the expertise of the authors in several ways. Very little you say is specific and most of it is not even accurate. TFA is a gloss on a paper published at Science Advances. The details you seek about the data and the models are there in the journal article and in the supplemental material of the article. The lead author (http://www.regionalclimateperspectives.com/ http://www.regionalclimateperspectives.com/) is a PhD in Earth science and is a postdoc at a reasonably well respected lab (JPL in Pasadena). Taken together, all this makes your comment look both foolish and wrong. What’s the point of writing such junk?
roter 5y ago
These are observational station locations, so typically located at airports, but will cluster in highly-developed countries and where people live or build things. Wet-bulb temperature is to first approximation the average of the dry-bulb (ambient temperature of air) and dew-point temperature (direct measure of amount of water vapour in air). So we're looking for places that can be both hot & wet in summer (e.g. eastern US) or really hot and still somewhat moist (e.g. near Arabian Sea) [0]. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%B6ppen_climate_classification https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%B6ppen_climate_classifica...

I’m not sure how to interpret the map either. The web bulb temperature of the top 0.1% of hot and humid days over a 38 year period?

bart_spoon 5y ago
Yeah its a very poor visualization. Its difficult to tell if it is showing the hottest wet bulb temperature of an area over the time period, or the most frequent, or what.
- roter 5y ago
  It is (likely) showing the 0.1% percentile of measured wet-bulb temperatures. i.e. in a given year, we expect 0.1% of the wet-bulbs to exceed this temperature or approximately 8 to 9 hours in a year.

ospzfmbbzr 5y ago

Dangerous to give any credence to this tripe. Models like the one mentioned (without references) are created by humans and the parameters they use are arbitrary. Scientists make some assumptions about parameters and run them through the system and get some results. They do this many times and vary the parameters to see what happens. It's the change in results vs the change in parameters that is the interesting stuff. Claiming they can predict the future is dishonest. Why do all references to climate models refer to 'The models or model'? It's like they are supposed to be oracles -- they are NOT. There is not just one or a few. They do not all show the same things. Models are a useful way to learn, but picking one result, not showing any work or stating assumptions, and then publishing click-bait referencing it is not ethical. > Climate models project the first 35°C TW occurrences by the mid-21st century. Which Climate models? Oh sorry it's the ONE so I won't question further. It could never be wrong. Do other models show anything different? Oh there are no others I see. What parameters were used? What datasets? There are zero references to any of this in the original paper but that didn't slow down the click-bait climate-fear-porn author who is not a scientist but a corporate communications person. > Looks like the data points have more to do with how many weather recording stations a region has than anything else. As others have said the 'survey data' they do reference seems to be mostly about how many stations a region has. Who funded this? > The study was supported by NOAA’s Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) Program. Big government looking to get bigger. For my part I have many years experience designing and running HPC scientific computing models in related domains.

andrewclunn 5y ago
Friendly hint. If you are skeptical of climate change dogma, point out the clearest / most obvious failures in the individual paper / article / claim being presented. Do not go further by offering conclusions extrapolated from that. That enables you to engage people's critical thinking without engaging their ideology.
- ospzfmbbzr 5y ago
  Good point. I had a coffee and just let it rip when I saw that article this morning.
mturmon 5y ago
You say this work is “without references,” and mock the research and the expertise of the authors in several ways. Very little you say is specific and most of it is not even accurate. TFA is a gloss on a paper published at Science Advances. The details you seek about the data and the models are there in the journal article and in the supplemental material of the article. The lead author (http://www.regionalclimateperspectives.com/ http://www.regionalclimateperspectives.com/) is a PhD in Earth science and is a postdoc at a reasonably well respected lab (JPL in Pasadena). Taken together, all this makes your comment look both foolish and wrong. What’s the point of writing such junk?

roter 5y ago

These are observational station locations, so typically located at airports, but will cluster in highly-developed countries and where people live or build things. Wet-bulb temperature is to first approximation the average of the dry-bulb (ambient temperature of air) and dew-point temperature (direct measure of amount of water vapour in air). So we're looking for places that can be both hot & wet in summer (e.g. eastern US) or really hot and still somewhat moist (e.g. near Arabian Sea) [0]. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%B6ppen_climate_classification https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%B6ppen_climate_classifica...