This is a good summary because the math is hugely distracting from the basic realities. You need to have basic intuition for what might be happening, the math

This is a good summary because the math is hugely distracting from the basic realities. You need to have basic intuition for what might be happening, the math is just a formality and frankly, is unnecessary beyond a very, very simple calculation. You have to actually 'think' about behaviour a bit if you want to get it right, that's the hard part. If you have something reasonable, then the conversions/control numbers can be worked out into a probability of success very quickly, and even then, just looking at them will give you a good idea if it worked or not. The maths is a shiny lure for technical people, it gets us all excited as though there is some kind of truth behind it.