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Curious how this unrest can happen, like a switch was flipped, given the circumstances on the other Russian border country with Ukraine. Coincidental timing if

Curious how this unrest can happen, like a switch was flipped, given the circumstances on the other Russian border country with Ukraine. Coincidental timing if nothing else, right?

q1w2 5y ago
When global gas prices rose this year, a black market emerged in Kazakhstan to smuggle out gov't subsidized gas to neighboring Kyrgystan and China (sold at triple the price). As the price of global gas went up, this black market became more profitable, more organized, and more controlled by organized crime. Remember also that Kazakhstan's largest city (and former capital in 2019), Almaty, is located by the Southern border. In an effort to curb this black market, the domestic price of gas raised much closer to the global market rate. Not surprisingly, the unrest was most violent and most well organized in Almaty. There is also an undercurrent of ethnic conflict between the ethnic Kazakh people and the ethnic Russia population. The former government has been working to switch from the Cyrillic alphabet to the Latin one, sending out language police to ensure businesses don't do business in Russian, and probably most importantly, talking to the US to establish US air bases.
- somedude895 5y ago
  > working to switch from the Cyrillic alphabet to the Latin one > talking to the US to establish US air bases I haven't read about this anywhere, but it sounds highly important considering Russia just sent in their troops. Do you have sources for these two claims?
  - Jon_Lowtek 5y ago
    Don't overvalue correlation. Kazhakstan has old contracts with Russia about (military) riot police support (called Collective Security Treaty Organisation) they are neighbors which has a logistical benefit and many Kazhaks speak russian, allowing a limited amount of communication, compared to, lets say, the french foreign legion (think: announcing surrender, asking for medical help, civilians that are not rioting). Lastly calling in foreign mercenaries to squelch unrest is a very old tactic as they are less likely to switch sides.
  - Jon_Lowtek 5y ago
    Concerning the alphabet here is a source: https://www.dw.com/en/kazakhstan-to-change-from-cyrillic-to-latin-alphabet/a-41147396 https://www.dw.com/en/kazakhstan-to-change-from-cyrillic-to-... DW is german state media reporting in english and it seems to at least mention most aspects from lingo-nationalism to computer keyboards and similar switches in the region. A newer source is https://astanatimes.com/2021/02/kazakhstan-presents-new-latin-alphabet-plans-gradual-transition-through-2031/ https://astanatimes.com/2021/02/kazakhstan-presents-new-lati... which focuses on how it is going. Note that Kazakhstan is not planning to use the most simple form of the Latin alphabet but relies on using umlauts, breves and cedillas to highlight different sounds used in spoken Kazakh. You can find more details in in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kazakh_alphabets https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kazakh_alphabets
tyingq 5y ago
They lifted price caps on liquified petroleum gas on January 1st. It is used for heating, cooking, hot water, and most cars there run on LPG. Prices doubled overnight. Other reasons for unrest, but that was the switch flip / last straw.
relativ575 5y ago
A switch was flipped? Did you forget about 30 years of dictatorship, nepotism and corruption? If a dam collapses, do you also think it happens by some sort of switch? Also, I find it amusing that the West is always mentioned as potential factor, yet the bigger picture is rarely mentioned: Kazakhstan is a resource rich country with low population, sandwiched between two countries with huge ambition. China has much stake in Kazakhstan as any other countries, and probably more.

Curious how this unrest can happen, like a switch was flipped, given the circumstances on the other Russian border country with Ukraine. Coincidental timing if nothing else, right?

q1w2 5y ago

When global gas prices rose this year, a black market emerged in Kazakhstan to smuggle out gov't subsidized gas to neighboring Kyrgystan and China (sold at triple the price). As the price of global gas went up, this black market became more profitable, more organized, and more controlled by organized crime. Remember also that Kazakhstan's largest city (and former capital in 2019), Almaty, is located by the Southern border. In an effort to curb this black market, the domestic price of gas raised much closer to the global market rate. Not surprisingly, the unrest was most violent and most well organized in Almaty. There is also an undercurrent of ethnic conflict between the ethnic Kazakh people and the ethnic Russia population. The former government has been working to switch from the Cyrillic alphabet to the Latin one, sending out language police to ensure businesses don't do business in Russian, and probably most importantly, talking to the US to establish US air bases.

somedude895 5y ago
> working to switch from the Cyrillic alphabet to the Latin one > talking to the US to establish US air bases I haven't read about this anywhere, but it sounds highly important considering Russia just sent in their troops. Do you have sources for these two claims?
- Jon_Lowtek 5y ago
  Don't overvalue correlation. Kazhakstan has old contracts with Russia about (military) riot police support (called Collective Security Treaty Organisation) they are neighbors which has a logistical benefit and many Kazhaks speak russian, allowing a limited amount of communication, compared to, lets say, the french foreign legion (think: announcing surrender, asking for medical help, civilians that are not rioting). Lastly calling in foreign mercenaries to squelch unrest is a very old tactic as they are less likely to switch sides.
- Jon_Lowtek 5y ago
  Concerning the alphabet here is a source: https://www.dw.com/en/kazakhstan-to-change-from-cyrillic-to-latin-alphabet/a-41147396 https://www.dw.com/en/kazakhstan-to-change-from-cyrillic-to-... DW is german state media reporting in english and it seems to at least mention most aspects from lingo-nationalism to computer keyboards and similar switches in the region. A newer source is https://astanatimes.com/2021/02/kazakhstan-presents-new-latin-alphabet-plans-gradual-transition-through-2031/ https://astanatimes.com/2021/02/kazakhstan-presents-new-lati... which focuses on how it is going. Note that Kazakhstan is not planning to use the most simple form of the Latin alphabet but relies on using umlauts, breves and cedillas to highlight different sounds used in spoken Kazakh. You can find more details in in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kazakh_alphabets https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kazakh_alphabets

tyingq 5y ago

They lifted price caps on liquified petroleum gas on January 1st. It is used for heating, cooking, hot water, and most cars there run on LPG. Prices doubled overnight. Other reasons for unrest, but that was the switch flip / last straw.

relativ575 5y ago

A switch was flipped? Did you forget about 30 years of dictatorship, nepotism and corruption? If a dam collapses, do you also think it happens by some sort of switch? Also, I find it amusing that the West is always mentioned as potential factor, yet the bigger picture is rarely mentioned: Kazakhstan is a resource rich country with low population, sandwiched between two countries with huge ambition. China has much stake in Kazakhstan as any other countries, and probably more.