30 ms·

I think it has something to do with when the data analyzed is from: the nadir of the delta wave, before omicron. They mention a low base transmission rate, whic

I think it has something to do with when the data analyzed is from: the nadir of the delta wave, before omicron. They mention a low base transmission rate, which is very much no longer applicable, and say the results are applicable to China, Australia, Israel, and other countries (where the virus is/was largely suppressed). Its applicability to the US right now seems very limited at best.

busymom0 5y ago
The author stated in an interview yesterday that with Omicron and waning effectiveness, the NNE raises even higher: https://youtu.be/wAI4GSzTYTU https://youtu.be/wAI4GSzTYTU The 1000 figure from his study is the lower bound.
roenxi 5y ago
The vaccination status of Australia (~93% vaccinations 12+) suggest that vaccines don't do anything practical to slow the spread of omicron. It seems to be vaccinated individuals infecting vaccinated individuals. All the anti-anti-vax efforts seem to be a bit futile. It makes the current brouhaha over Djokovic is just silly - he's more at risk from Australians than Australians are for him. I'm double vaccinated and still probably going to get COVID in the next month and there isn't even going to be a good tennis match to watch while I'm coughing and sneezing. What is the justification of this sillyness now?
- liamwestray 5y ago
  As of the latest data in the US for vaccinated people re: Omicron: You're 13x less likely to land in the hospital. You're 45x less likely to die. It's gone from being 10-20x more deadly than the flu to half as deadly with the vaccine. And Omicron hasn't peaked yet in the U.S., these numbers are likely conservative. Last I checked you had 1/14th the population and 1/30th the deaths we had. You got the vaccine later than we did, hit 93% vaccination rate while we're STILL below 65%. Australia took things way more seriously than we did, maybe a bit "too conservatively" for your taste, but the alternative I live in is that 2 aunt's funerals were over zoom (pre vaccine), and my I'm waiting for my 63 yr old uncle (anti-vax) who had a heart attack 3 years ago, is obese, been a lifelong smoker, and just got CoViD to recover.
  - roenxi 5y ago
    > You're 13x less likely to land in the hospital. > You're 45x less likely to die. So? Why should that inconvenience me? They are adults and have the privilege of living their lives how they want as long as they bear their own consequences. This strategy seems to be they face all those risks anyway and we make sure their lives are miserable for no obvious reason. That is cruel to them and also stupid. These people presumably pay their taxes, it isn't like there is an unfair burden on everyone else. If there is, charge them a fee when they get to hospital or take it out of their estate if they die. If people want to take sill risks, let them.
    - liamwestray 5y ago
      I don't think you understood what I said. Being vaccinated results in those outcomes. Not your lockdowns. Your lockdowns only resulted in 50% less deaths than our mismanagement. You're right, we shouldn't be inconvenienced by a death cult of anti-science morons. You don't have to be because your country made better decisions than mine.
  - landemva 5y ago
    'You're 45x less likely to die.' I'm surprised at how you could determine 45x without knowing the age or co-morbidities of the person posting. Particularly concerning is that a young person in good health has little chance of dying, and the 45x comment may be wildly wrong.
    - liamwestray 5y ago
      Because, and I'm just guessing, he's younger the 65 if he's posting on HN? And, well because all of the actual data keeps proving that the unvaccinated are at orders of magnitude higher risk than vaccinated across all age groups. https://azdhs.gov/covid19/documents/data/rates-of-cov-19-by-vaccination.pdf https://azdhs.gov/covid19/documents/data/rates-of-cov-19-by-...
      - busymom0 5y ago

busymom0 5y ago

The author stated in an interview yesterday that with Omicron and waning effectiveness, the NNE raises even higher: https://youtu.be/wAI4GSzTYTU https://youtu.be/wAI4GSzTYTU The 1000 figure from his study is the lower bound.

roenxi 5y ago

The vaccination status of Australia (~93% vaccinations 12+) suggest that vaccines don't do anything practical to slow the spread of omicron. It seems to be vaccinated individuals infecting vaccinated individuals. All the anti-anti-vax efforts seem to be a bit futile. It makes the current brouhaha over Djokovic is just silly - he's more at risk from Australians than Australians are for him. I'm double vaccinated and still probably going to get COVID in the next month and there isn't even going to be a good tennis match to watch while I'm coughing and sneezing. What is the justification of this sillyness now?

liamwestray 5y ago
As of the latest data in the US for vaccinated people re: Omicron: You're 13x less likely to land in the hospital. You're 45x less likely to die. It's gone from being 10-20x more deadly than the flu to half as deadly with the vaccine. And Omicron hasn't peaked yet in the U.S., these numbers are likely conservative. Last I checked you had 1/14th the population and 1/30th the deaths we had. You got the vaccine later than we did, hit 93% vaccination rate while we're STILL below 65%. Australia took things way more seriously than we did, maybe a bit "too conservatively" for your taste, but the alternative I live in is that 2 aunt's funerals were over zoom (pre vaccine), and my I'm waiting for my 63 yr old uncle (anti-vax) who had a heart attack 3 years ago, is obese, been a lifelong smoker, and just got CoViD to recover.
- roenxi 5y ago
  > You're 13x less likely to land in the hospital. > You're 45x less likely to die. So? Why should that inconvenience me? They are adults and have the privilege of living their lives how they want as long as they bear their own consequences. This strategy seems to be they face all those risks anyway and we make sure their lives are miserable for no obvious reason. That is cruel to them and also stupid. These people presumably pay their taxes, it isn't like there is an unfair burden on everyone else. If there is, charge them a fee when they get to hospital or take it out of their estate if they die. If people want to take sill risks, let them.
  - liamwestray 5y ago
    I don't think you understood what I said. Being vaccinated results in those outcomes. Not your lockdowns. Your lockdowns only resulted in 50% less deaths than our mismanagement. You're right, we shouldn't be inconvenienced by a death cult of anti-science morons. You don't have to be because your country made better decisions than mine.
- landemva 5y ago
  'You're 45x less likely to die.' I'm surprised at how you could determine 45x without knowing the age or co-morbidities of the person posting. Particularly concerning is that a young person in good health has little chance of dying, and the 45x comment may be wildly wrong.
  - liamwestray 5y ago
    Because, and I'm just guessing, he's younger the 65 if he's posting on HN? And, well because all of the actual data keeps proving that the unvaccinated are at orders of magnitude higher risk than vaccinated across all age groups. https://azdhs.gov/covid19/documents/data/rates-of-cov-19-by-vaccination.pdf https://azdhs.gov/covid19/documents/data/rates-of-cov-19-by-...
    - busymom0 5y ago