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Yes, but you would think the economist would describe the preceding economic turmoil. Whatever their politics, all americans have it relatively very good. When
by _8j50 5y ago
Yes, but you would think the economist would describe the preceding economic turmoil. Whatever their politics, all americans have it relatively very good. When that changes and there is serious blaming and fingerpointing then it is the liberals fault or conservatives fault, the worse it gets the more racial and xenophobic it gets.
The difference between social unrest and civil war is the latter has organized military forces on both sides. In the US it will never be militias going at it, it will be state national guards and other branches of military. Things would need to get very bad to where for example nebraska blocks trains and California blocks trucks to opposing states.
I am not saying the whole blm vs white supremacist b.s. has no place, I am just saying that social unrear would need to be very bad with state gov/police support causing other states to intervene.
One way or the other, a state would need to refuse to cooperate with fed gov even with military intervention.
For perspective, when JFK sent troops to let the first black kid attend school with white kids, the governor did no command his military to resist. Things would need to get worse than that.
Even with the internet, this can't be less than 8-10 years away, by that time the population will change significantly. Boomer deaths but also post 9/11 kids who only knew crisis after crisis either very hungry or repulsed by the idea of an internal conflict.
Meanwhile China, Russia and pals are working very hard to undermine the US economy. My guess is they will somewhat succeed before any serious social turmoil. Also, keep in mind, terror works very well against the US population (sorry NSA guy monitoring this), be it 9/11, afghanistan or vietnam, events that get the people overhwelmed and upset will have lasting and effective change. If that were not the case the US would have invaded pakistan and afghanistan leaving them in ruins very fast and getting out, vietnam would have been a proper invasion instead of supporting south vietnam and it would have lasted as long as it needed to, the military would be much more brutal and cruel like most other non-western military forces (rape, murder,etc... rampant). My point is the US as a whole country is not the same as 156 years ago, serious conflicts will not persist due to weak stomach. It will take a lot (hunger, national shame,etc...)
Horrible things to think about.
- ineedasername 5y agoI think you make some cogent points, but what do you mean by preceding economic turmoil? After '08/'09 there were daily steady decreases in unemployment through to the 2016 election and steady market increase to ~historic highs by the 2016 election.
- _8j50 5y agoI meant one way or the other there will be a recession or depression, I don't know enough to speculate there but that and global economic trends and US isolationism are the recipies I was thinking of. All the major US states have big liberal cities and wide conservative rural areas. In the original civil war, slave based economy and livelihood was at stake. No matter what, economy will supersede ideology, there will be no civil war with a good economy. Just social unrest. And by good I don't mean stock market or cheap houses but well stocked walmart and >70% employment rate for those looking for work.
- ineedasername 5y ago>I meant one way or the other there will be a recession or depression, I thought the context was the 2016 election? (Or I misunderstood). It didn't seem apparent in 2016 that a depression was looming (to me).