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> Imagine you have bought two non-refundable tickets to different trips, one much more costly. You are then told that you must cancel one of them. In this case,

by pkoird 5y ago

> Imagine you have bought two non-refundable tickets to different trips, one much more costly. You are then told that you must cancel one of them. In this case, many people will cancel the cheaper trip regardless of which one they would prefer to go on – and even though they will have spent the same amount of money either way. I think a better example to sunken cost bias could be found than this one as people usually pay more for trips that they prefer more in the first place.

hwbehrens 5y ago
It also ignores that if you booked a trip to a place, you likely did so because you want to go to that place. Thus, if you were forced to cancel your trip due to a conflict, it is implicitly more likely that you would book a trip there again in the future - a rain check, essentially. If the question was "Which of these trips would you like to pay for twice?", then it's immediately obvious that the cheaper trip should be cancelled.
yupper32 5y ago
This is a strange one. I'd cancel the cheaper one because it'll be easier to go on that cheaper trip at a later date than the more expensive one. Choosing the one you'd rather go on right now shows a lack of planning. It seems less rational to me.
- flayx 5y ago
  Precisely. It is fully rational to cancel the cheaper trip. Many autistic persons would say that the entire question is stupid.
  - compressedgas 5y ago
    Because no rationale was given for why.
- seba_dos1 5y ago
  > it'll be easier to go on that cheaper trip at a later date than the more expensive one How can you infer that just from its price though? :P
  - yupper32 5y ago
    You can't but "I don't know, I need more information" is a boring answer for a thought exercise.
  - PeterisP 5y ago
    Because in the world I live in, there's a strong correlation between a previous price and a future one. While it's not always the case and all kinds of factors apply, previous price is a quite relevant signal. In the absence of any additional specific information, if I know that ticket to city A was cheaper than a ticket to city B, then it's reasonable to assume that a future ticket to city A is a bit more likely to be cheaper than a future ticket to city B.
    - seba_dos1 5y ago
      That doesn't answer my question at all - the statement was that it's "easier", not "cheaper" to go to that city at later time. Price is just one single factor that may influence how easy it will be later compared to now. Maybe a significant chunk of your motivation to visit city A was to see it covered in snow and do some winter sports, so if you cancel it now you'll likely have to wait a whole year to do it again? Or maybe you booked these trips to see some bands playing life? What if the band playing in the cheaper city is less likely to play again within your reachable area in foreseeable future? There's a huge amount of reasons why canceling the cheaper trip may not be the best option, and I believe noticing that is what the article was actually talking about.
      - jjk166 5y ago
        The two options are the cheap and the expensive one. If we're making the determination of which one to drop based on price, and are given no information about the options besides price, presumably price is the determining factor. All else being equal, cheaper means easier.
codetrotter 5y ago
Yeah and not just that, they speak about weighing the available information but they don’t give any more information about the situation. If I have paid for two trips and have to cancel one of them with no refunds, I assume that I really wanted to go on both. So when I am choosing which one to cancel, I am also likely choosing that I will later repurchase the trip that I am cancelling now. So at that point I’d be looking at which of the two trips is cheaper to replace. And if I am not allowed by the rules of this thought experiment to do so, then I must assume that the more expensive one of those two will cost more to buy again later also. Then also as you say, which one is more preferable in the first place and again, if I was willing to pay more for one of them in the first place then presumably that one. Unless there was something special about the cheap one. For example, maybe it’s a trip somewhere that I cannot go in the future, only now. Or a trip with someone I want to go there with and they can only go at this time. But again, all of that kind of stuff is left unspecified in the question. So if they force us to make a choice on so little information, what are they expecting, and in what sense is the kind of question they are asking anything but a straw man kind of deal? What even were the possible answers that respondents could give? If “I don’t know”, or “too little information to determine” are an option then I’d pick one of those, but if the only answer we can give is “cancel the cheap one”/“cancel the expensive one”, then I would say cancel the cheap one, but they can’t then just go and say “oh this is a fallacy and you fell for it”. Shruggs.
anigbrowl 5y ago
This sounds like a poor explanation of a more nuanced study.
MisterBastahrd 5y ago
Not only that, but usually people would want to have more information than what is being presented. If the location is one I'd more like to visit, or if the location is the same but one of the modes of transportation is nicer, then I'd obviously choose the more expensive of the two. Also, if my intention is that I want to visit both locations anyway, then I would also choose the more expensive option. So I don't know the specifics of the question at hand, or if these autistic people were even able to ask these questions, but they seem rather important, and if they in fact NOT asking them but had the opportunity to do so, then I'd question the value of some of the assumptions this article seems to make.

by pkoird 5y ago

hwbehrens 5y ago

It also ignores that if you booked a trip to a place, you likely did so because you want to go to that place. Thus, if you were forced to cancel your trip due to a conflict, it is implicitly more likely that you would book a trip there again in the future - a rain check, essentially. If the question was "Which of these trips would you like to pay for twice?", then it's immediately obvious that the cheaper trip should be cancelled.

yupper32 5y ago

This is a strange one. I'd cancel the cheaper one because it'll be easier to go on that cheaper trip at a later date than the more expensive one. Choosing the one you'd rather go on right now shows a lack of planning. It seems less rational to me.

flayx 5y ago
Precisely. It is fully rational to cancel the cheaper trip. Many autistic persons would say that the entire question is stupid.
- compressedgas 5y ago
  Because no rationale was given for why.
seba_dos1 5y ago
> it'll be easier to go on that cheaper trip at a later date than the more expensive one How can you infer that just from its price though? :P
- yupper32 5y ago
  You can't but "I don't know, I need more information" is a boring answer for a thought exercise.
- PeterisP 5y ago
  Because in the world I live in, there's a strong correlation between a previous price and a future one. While it's not always the case and all kinds of factors apply, previous price is a quite relevant signal. In the absence of any additional specific information, if I know that ticket to city A was cheaper than a ticket to city B, then it's reasonable to assume that a future ticket to city A is a bit more likely to be cheaper than a future ticket to city B.
  - seba_dos1 5y ago
    That doesn't answer my question at all - the statement was that it's "easier", not "cheaper" to go to that city at later time. Price is just one single factor that may influence how easy it will be later compared to now. Maybe a significant chunk of your motivation to visit city A was to see it covered in snow and do some winter sports, so if you cancel it now you'll likely have to wait a whole year to do it again? Or maybe you booked these trips to see some bands playing life? What if the band playing in the cheaper city is less likely to play again within your reachable area in foreseeable future? There's a huge amount of reasons why canceling the cheaper trip may not be the best option, and I believe noticing that is what the article was actually talking about.
    - jjk166 5y ago
      The two options are the cheap and the expensive one. If we're making the determination of which one to drop based on price, and are given no information about the options besides price, presumably price is the determining factor. All else being equal, cheaper means easier.

codetrotter 5y ago

Yeah and not just that, they speak about weighing the available information but they don’t give any more information about the situation. If I have paid for two trips and have to cancel one of them with no refunds, I assume that I really wanted to go on both. So when I am choosing which one to cancel, I am also likely choosing that I will later repurchase the trip that I am cancelling now. So at that point I’d be looking at which of the two trips is cheaper to replace. And if I am not allowed by the rules of this thought experiment to do so, then I must assume that the more expensive one of those two will cost more to buy again later also. Then also as you say, which one is more preferable in the first place and again, if I was willing to pay more for one of them in the first place then presumably that one. Unless there was something special about the cheap one. For example, maybe it’s a trip somewhere that I cannot go in the future, only now. Or a trip with someone I want to go there with and they can only go at this time. But again, all of that kind of stuff is left unspecified in the question. So if they force us to make a choice on so little information, what are they expecting, and in what sense is the kind of question they are asking anything but a straw man kind of deal? What even were the possible answers that respondents could give? If “I don’t know”, or “too little information to determine” are an option then I’d pick one of those, but if the only answer we can give is “cancel the cheap one”/“cancel the expensive one”, then I would say cancel the cheap one, but they can’t then just go and say “oh this is a fallacy and you fell for it”. Shruggs.

anigbrowl 5y ago

This sounds like a poor explanation of a more nuanced study.

MisterBastahrd 5y ago

Not only that, but usually people would want to have more information than what is being presented. If the location is one I'd more like to visit, or if the location is the same but one of the modes of transportation is nicer, then I'd obviously choose the more expensive of the two. Also, if my intention is that I want to visit both locations anyway, then I would also choose the more expensive option. So I don't know the specifics of the question at hand, or if these autistic people were even able to ask these questions, but they seem rather important, and if they in fact NOT asking them but had the opportunity to do so, then I'd question the value of some of the assumptions this article seems to make.