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What effective containment strategies? Pretty much every country's strategies have completely collapsed due to Omicron. Australia currently has a wildly expone

What effective containment strategies? Pretty much every country's strategies have completely collapsed due to Omicron. Australia currently has a wildly exponential growth of cases and twice the number of daily cases/capita compared to Sweden, to take two countries at each end of the "containment" spectrum. And that's despite Australia being in the middle of summer, despite Australia being isolated in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, and despite Australia having more restrictions than Sweden right now. It's all hubris. We have way less control over the spread than we like to think.

zionic 5y ago
Not just “more than Sweden”. Australia has failed while going full 1984. This entire thing is a huge inditement of police nanny states.
paganel 5y ago
> What effective containment strategies? I think NZ and especially China are the only ones left. I think NZ has relaxed its restrictions about 2-3 months ago and to be honest I'm a little surprised they haven't yet followed Australia's path with the exponential number of Omicron cases, but imo the very big question remains China, I have no idea how they plan to handle this going forward.
- potatochup 5y ago
  Yeah, NZ is going to get Omicron at some point and then we'll catch up with the rest of the world. We had <20 cases the other day, but there are hundreds in quarantine who've arrived from other countries that will bring in Omicron. 2020 and 2021 was mostly totally covid free, so having normal life back again was a real blessing. But it's just a matter of time before we catch up to the rest of the world
- henrikschroder 5y ago
  I don't trust a single number or report coming out of China. The official numbers show a couple of thousand dead. No way. Dictatorships usually make examples of individuals/groups/regions to make everyone else fall in line. The virus however doesn't give a shit about the wishes of authoritarian regimes, which is why making an example of a region or a city and forcing millions of people to stay indoors, doesn't stop the spread elsewhere. It's a virus, not a rebellion. I'm assuming China has always had a low level spread that could be hidden, because their demographics make it a non-issue. However, I'm guessing Omicron is creating such massive spread that regional officials can't deny reality any longer, and the lockdowns are some kind of desperate last-ditch attempt to save face.
  - camdat 5y ago
    There have been independent studies showing their numbers are, while not perfectly accurate, within the margin of error for extrapolated excess mortality[0]. As I've said in other threads on this issue, it is very difficult to hide deaths on even a small scale. Bodies do not simply disappear, and even small numbers of deaths are easily discoverable by measuring economic output (and even air quality!) of the region. China is being at least reletively honest in their reporting, and I think thats difficult for us westerners to believe because their numbers are so shockingly low. An effective containment strategy _is_ possible, and the west has utterly failed in that respect. [0]: https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n415 https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n415
    - perl4ever 5y ago
      Have you read it? Or did you take the word of other people on HN who told you your link was a study about China and not Cuba?
    - henrikschroder 5y ago
      I'm not suggesting China has been hiding bodies, but with a demographic where diabetes and obesity is almost non-existant, the mortality of covid-19 is very low. You shouldn't see any excess mortality, which means you can hide the true number of cases by lying about cause of death instead. > An effective containment strategy _is_ possible Not at any cost I'm comfortable with.
      - ptaipale 5y ago
        Diabetes and obesity are not "almost non-existant" in China. According to National Health Commission report, more than 50% of adults are classified as overweight, and 16.4% are obese. [1] Prevalence of diabetes is also over 10 %. [2] [1] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55428530 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55428530 [2] https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m997#:~:text=The%20prevalence%20of%20total%20diabetes%20defined%20by%20the%20WHO%20criteria,needed%20to%20reduce%20its%20burden https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m997#:~:text=The%20preva....
      - 5y ago
koyote 5y ago
> Australia having more restrictions than Sweden right now. Do you have a source for that? Most Australian states have little to no restrictions at the moment bar mask mandates indoors. If I googled correctly, Sweden only allows seated customers in bars, restaurants and events as well as limits to events?
- henrikschroder 5y ago
  Most Australian states still have mandatory qr-code checkins for everything, police are still chasing people fleeing the "voluntary" quarantine at Howard Springs, and still fining people not wearing face masks. And some still have restrictions that are stricter than what Sweden currently has: https://www.covid-19.sa.gov.au/restrictions-and-responsibilities/activities-and-gatherings/current-activity-restrictions https://www.covid-19.sa.gov.au/restrictions-and-responsibili... The other restrictions are of course coming back, despite promises to the contrary: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2022/jan/07/australia-live-news-update-nsw-reportedly-to-reintroduce-covid-restrictions-home-affairs-minister-defends-djokovic-visa-decision-vaccine- https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2022/jan/07/... https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-06/covid-restrictions-tighten-in-victoria-to-slow-spread-of-omicron/100741342 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-06/covid-restrictions-ti...

zionic 5y ago

Not just “more than Sweden”. Australia has failed while going full 1984. This entire thing is a huge inditement of police nanny states.

paganel 5y ago

> What effective containment strategies? I think NZ and especially China are the only ones left. I think NZ has relaxed its restrictions about 2-3 months ago and to be honest I'm a little surprised they haven't yet followed Australia's path with the exponential number of Omicron cases, but imo the very big question remains China, I have no idea how they plan to handle this going forward.

potatochup 5y ago
Yeah, NZ is going to get Omicron at some point and then we'll catch up with the rest of the world. We had <20 cases the other day, but there are hundreds in quarantine who've arrived from other countries that will bring in Omicron. 2020 and 2021 was mostly totally covid free, so having normal life back again was a real blessing. But it's just a matter of time before we catch up to the rest of the world
henrikschroder 5y ago
I don't trust a single number or report coming out of China. The official numbers show a couple of thousand dead. No way. Dictatorships usually make examples of individuals/groups/regions to make everyone else fall in line. The virus however doesn't give a shit about the wishes of authoritarian regimes, which is why making an example of a region or a city and forcing millions of people to stay indoors, doesn't stop the spread elsewhere. It's a virus, not a rebellion. I'm assuming China has always had a low level spread that could be hidden, because their demographics make it a non-issue. However, I'm guessing Omicron is creating such massive spread that regional officials can't deny reality any longer, and the lockdowns are some kind of desperate last-ditch attempt to save face.
- camdat 5y ago
  There have been independent studies showing their numbers are, while not perfectly accurate, within the margin of error for extrapolated excess mortality[0]. As I've said in other threads on this issue, it is very difficult to hide deaths on even a small scale. Bodies do not simply disappear, and even small numbers of deaths are easily discoverable by measuring economic output (and even air quality!) of the region. China is being at least reletively honest in their reporting, and I think thats difficult for us westerners to believe because their numbers are so shockingly low. An effective containment strategy _is_ possible, and the west has utterly failed in that respect. [0]: https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n415 https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n415
  - perl4ever 5y ago
    Have you read it? Or did you take the word of other people on HN who told you your link was a study about China and not Cuba?
  - henrikschroder 5y ago
    I'm not suggesting China has been hiding bodies, but with a demographic where diabetes and obesity is almost non-existant, the mortality of covid-19 is very low. You shouldn't see any excess mortality, which means you can hide the true number of cases by lying about cause of death instead. > An effective containment strategy _is_ possible Not at any cost I'm comfortable with.
    - ptaipale 5y ago
      Diabetes and obesity are not "almost non-existant" in China. According to National Health Commission report, more than 50% of adults are classified as overweight, and 16.4% are obese. [1] Prevalence of diabetes is also over 10 %. [2] [1] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55428530 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55428530 [2] https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m997#:~:text=The%20prevalence%20of%20total%20diabetes%20defined%20by%20the%20WHO%20criteria,needed%20to%20reduce%20its%20burden https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m997#:~:text=The%20preva....
    - 5y ago

koyote 5y ago

> Australia having more restrictions than Sweden right now. Do you have a source for that? Most Australian states have little to no restrictions at the moment bar mask mandates indoors. If I googled correctly, Sweden only allows seated customers in bars, restaurants and events as well as limits to events?

henrikschroder 5y ago
Most Australian states still have mandatory qr-code checkins for everything, police are still chasing people fleeing the "voluntary" quarantine at Howard Springs, and still fining people not wearing face masks. And some still have restrictions that are stricter than what Sweden currently has: https://www.covid-19.sa.gov.au/restrictions-and-responsibilities/activities-and-gatherings/current-activity-restrictions https://www.covid-19.sa.gov.au/restrictions-and-responsibili... The other restrictions are of course coming back, despite promises to the contrary: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2022/jan/07/australia-live-news-update-nsw-reportedly-to-reintroduce-covid-restrictions-home-affairs-minister-defends-djokovic-visa-decision-vaccine- https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2022/jan/07/... https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-06/covid-restrictions-tighten-in-victoria-to-slow-spread-of-omicron/100741342 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-06/covid-restrictions-ti...