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At this point that is the best case. COVID zero is a pipe dream, there are just too many vaccine refusers and too many people refusing to do anything to avoid

At this point that is the best case. COVID zero is a pipe dream, there are just too many vaccine refusers and too many people refusing to do anything to avoid spreading the virus. If COVID follows the typical evolutionary pattern of viruses and becomes less dangerous, we can get back to normal life -- the question is how long that will take.

fragmede 5y ago
> typical evolutionary pattern of viruses and becomes less dangerous Wishful thinking (that I hope comes true). Ebola got more lethal, not less.
- betterunix2 5y ago
  Ebola is not endemic to humans. It is not lethal to the bat species in which it is endemic.
contravariant 5y ago
I'm not sure what basis you have for assuming it will evolve to be less dangerous, Since it still leaves most of its host alive I can't think of a mechanism that would prevent it from staying equally deadly, except of course that most of the population will have some degree of immunity. This pandemic will inevitably end, after which Covid-19 may stay endemic, but Covid-19 becoming endemic and the pandemic ending aren't really the same thing and frankly aren't really causally related so to me it seems weird to express hope for the endemic to begin rather than the pandemic to end. Anyway, we'll need to ride out this last wave first. I'd say hopefully last, but we may end up hoping it wasn't. Regardless let's hope it at least burns itself out in the process as opposed to smouldering for ever.
- betterunix2 5y ago
  It is still more dangerous than the other endemic coronaviruses that cause the common cold. In general the selection pressure on viruses (and other parasites) is to be less disruptive to the lives of their hosts -- not just being less deadly, but also not incapacitating hosts for extended periods of time. How long it takes for a virus to become endemic-without-ill-effects can vary widely, but the hope here is that COVID19 will do so quickly, becoming "just another common cold" within another year or two.
- leggomuhgreggo 5y ago
  It's not an absolute but it is a strong tendency which seems evident with omicron. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muller's_ratchet https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muller's_ratchet Noteworthy exception in virology is Marek's Disease: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marek's_disease https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marek's_disease

fragmede 5y ago

> typical evolutionary pattern of viruses and becomes less dangerous Wishful thinking (that I hope comes true). Ebola got more lethal, not less.

betterunix2 5y ago
Ebola is not endemic to humans. It is not lethal to the bat species in which it is endemic.

contravariant 5y ago

I'm not sure what basis you have for assuming it will evolve to be less dangerous, Since it still leaves most of its host alive I can't think of a mechanism that would prevent it from staying equally deadly, except of course that most of the population will have some degree of immunity. This pandemic will inevitably end, after which Covid-19 may stay endemic, but Covid-19 becoming endemic and the pandemic ending aren't really the same thing and frankly aren't really causally related so to me it seems weird to express hope for the endemic to begin rather than the pandemic to end. Anyway, we'll need to ride out this last wave first. I'd say hopefully last, but we may end up hoping it wasn't. Regardless let's hope it at least burns itself out in the process as opposed to smouldering for ever.

betterunix2 5y ago
It is still more dangerous than the other endemic coronaviruses that cause the common cold. In general the selection pressure on viruses (and other parasites) is to be less disruptive to the lives of their hosts -- not just being less deadly, but also not incapacitating hosts for extended periods of time. How long it takes for a virus to become endemic-without-ill-effects can vary widely, but the hope here is that COVID19 will do so quickly, becoming "just another common cold" within another year or two.
leggomuhgreggo 5y ago
It's not an absolute but it is a strong tendency which seems evident with omicron. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muller's_ratchet https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muller's_ratchet Noteworthy exception in virology is Marek's Disease: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marek's_disease https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marek's_disease