6 ms·

It's mild for non-vaccinated South Africans as well. The same still applies as always: Vaccinate the risk groups.

by spurgu 5y ago

mullingitover 5y ago
SA had very high numbers of previous infections, so there was a ton of pre-existing immunity.
- spurgu 5y ago
  Which some would see as a partial argument against lockdowns.
  - mullingitover 5y ago
    Comparing death rates in Australia, which actually did pretty major lockdowns, to South Africa[1], I don't know that this is a great argument against them. South Africa definitely paid for that infection-based immunity in human lives. [1] https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=ZAF~AUS https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...
    - spurgu 5y ago
      Of course heavy and complete lockdowns are effective (at delaying the spread of the virus) - if no one is in contact with anyone else there's no way for the virus to spread. A more apt comparison would be made between countries/states with slight or "normal/average" lockdown to ones without, but that's very difficult to do in practice. And then measure the financial and societal impacts (which is also difficult/impossible).
- the_doctah 5y ago
  So if everyone gets Omicron, we will have a ton of pre-existing immunity?
  - lovecg 5y ago
    Seems that we don’t have much choice in the matter so we will find out pretty soon. That wouldn’t be the worst outcome.
  - mullingitover 5y ago
    We already have a great deal of pre-existing immunity. The big question we're answering right now is whether vaccine-based immunity (which we have more of in AU, UK, and the US) is as robust as immunity from infection (main source of immunity in SA). It's still too early to say with certainty, but it's looking like the vaccines are working if you're not immunocompromised.
- kcplate 5y ago
  According the the CDC, natural immunity is not be named or acknowledged.
betterunix2 5y ago
Yet the unvaccinated are still overwhelmingly more likely to wind up requiring hospital care than the vaccinated.
- ifyoubuildit 5y ago
  The seronaive are. The unvaccinated with a prior infection are unlikely to require hospital care: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2108120 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2108120

It's mild for non-vaccinated South Africans as well. The same still applies as always: Vaccinate the risk groups.

by spurgu 5y ago

It's mild for non-vaccinated South Africans as well. The same still applies as always: Vaccinate the risk groups.

mullingitover 5y ago

SA had very high numbers of previous infections, so there was a ton of pre-existing immunity.

spurgu 5y ago
Which some would see as a partial argument against lockdowns.
- mullingitover 5y ago
  Comparing death rates in Australia, which actually did pretty major lockdowns, to South Africa[1], I don't know that this is a great argument against them. South Africa definitely paid for that infection-based immunity in human lives. [1] https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=ZAF~AUS https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...
  - spurgu 5y ago
    Of course heavy and complete lockdowns are effective (at delaying the spread of the virus) - if no one is in contact with anyone else there's no way for the virus to spread. A more apt comparison would be made between countries/states with slight or "normal/average" lockdown to ones without, but that's very difficult to do in practice. And then measure the financial and societal impacts (which is also difficult/impossible).
the_doctah 5y ago
So if everyone gets Omicron, we will have a ton of pre-existing immunity?
- lovecg 5y ago
  Seems that we don’t have much choice in the matter so we will find out pretty soon. That wouldn’t be the worst outcome.
- mullingitover 5y ago
  We already have a great deal of pre-existing immunity. The big question we're answering right now is whether vaccine-based immunity (which we have more of in AU, UK, and the US) is as robust as immunity from infection (main source of immunity in SA). It's still too early to say with certainty, but it's looking like the vaccines are working if you're not immunocompromised.
kcplate 5y ago
According the the CDC, natural immunity is not be named or acknowledged.

betterunix2 5y ago

Yet the unvaccinated are still overwhelmingly more likely to wind up requiring hospital care than the vaccinated.

ifyoubuildit 5y ago
The seronaive are. The unvaccinated with a prior infection are unlikely to require hospital care: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2108120 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2108120