5 ms·

I think that may be a completely rational perspective from within the United States... however, from the perspective of countries with effective containment str

by elif 5y ago

I think that may be a completely rational perspective from within the United States... however, from the perspective of countries with effective containment strategies, that sounds prematurely defeatist, and also ignores the vast good that comes from containing spread for mutagenic purposes.

s1artibartfast 5y ago
It will be very interesting to see how containment countries adapt to the future, where global eradication simply isn't possible. Perhaps there will be a sterilizing vaccine that makes it worth it in the end. My heart goes out to those impacted by containment strategies. I was talking with someone from NZ or AU (I forget), who hasn't been able to go home an see his wife in two Christmases.
henrikschroder 5y ago
What effective containment strategies? Pretty much every country's strategies have completely collapsed due to Omicron. Australia currently has a wildly exponential growth of cases and twice the number of daily cases/capita compared to Sweden, to take two countries at each end of the "containment" spectrum. And that's despite Australia being in the middle of summer, despite Australia being isolated in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, and despite Australia having more restrictions than Sweden right now. It's all hubris. We have way less control over the spread than we like to think.
- zionic 5y ago
  Not just “more than Sweden”. Australia has failed while going full 1984. This entire thing is a huge inditement of police nanny states.
- paganel 5y ago
  > What effective containment strategies? I think NZ and especially China are the only ones left. I think NZ has relaxed its restrictions about 2-3 months ago and to be honest I'm a little surprised they haven't yet followed Australia's path with the exponential number of Omicron cases, but imo the very big question remains China, I have no idea how they plan to handle this going forward.
  - potatochup 5y ago
    Yeah, NZ is going to get Omicron at some point and then we'll catch up with the rest of the world. We had <20 cases the other day, but there are hundreds in quarantine who've arrived from other countries that will bring in Omicron. 2020 and 2021 was mostly totally covid free, so having normal life back again was a real blessing. But it's just a matter of time before we catch up to the rest of the world
  - henrikschroder 5y ago
    I don't trust a single number or report coming out of China. The official numbers show a couple of thousand dead. No way. Dictatorships usually make examples of individuals/groups/regions to make everyone else fall in line. The virus however doesn't give a shit about the wishes of authoritarian regimes, which is why making an example of a region or a city and forcing millions of people to stay indoors, doesn't stop the spread elsewhere. It's a virus, not a rebellion. I'm assuming China has always had a low level spread that could be hidden, because their demographics make it a non-issue. However, I'm guessing Omicron is creating such massive spread that regional officials can't deny reality any longer, and the lockdowns are some kind of desperate last-ditch attempt to save face.
    - camdat 5y ago
      There have been independent studies showing their numbers are, while not perfectly accurate, within the margin of error for extrapolated excess mortality[0]. As I've said in other threads on this issue, it is very difficult to hide deaths on even a small scale. Bodies do not simply disappear, and even small numbers of deaths are easily discoverable by measuring economic output (and even air quality!) of the region. China is being at least reletively honest in their reporting, and I think thats difficult for us westerners to believe because their numbers are so shockingly low. An effective containment strategy _is_ possible, and the west has utterly failed in that respect. [0]: https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n415 https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n415
      - perl4ever 5y ago
        Have you read it? Or did you take the word of other people on HN who told you your link was a study about China and not Cuba?
- koyote 5y ago
  > Australia having more restrictions than Sweden right now. Do you have a source for that? Most Australian states have little to no restrictions at the moment bar mask mandates indoors. If I googled correctly, Sweden only allows seated customers in bars, restaurants and events as well as limits to events?
  - henrikschroder 5y ago
    Most Australian states still have mandatory qr-code checkins for everything, police are still chasing people fleeing the "voluntary" quarantine at Howard Springs, and still fining people not wearing face masks. And some still have restrictions that are stricter than what Sweden currently has: https://www.covid-19.sa.gov.au/restrictions-and-responsibilities/activities-and-gatherings/current-activity-restrictions https://www.covid-19.sa.gov.au/restrictions-and-responsibili... The other restrictions are of course coming back, despite promises to the contrary: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2022/jan/07/australia-live-news-update-nsw-reportedly-to-reintroduce-covid-restrictions-home-affairs-minister-defends-djokovic-visa-decision-vaccine- https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2022/jan/07/... https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-06/covid-restrictions-tighten-in-victoria-to-slow-spread-of-omicron/100741342 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-06/covid-restrictions-ti...
lamontcg 5y ago
> the vast good that comes from containing spread for mutagenic purposes. We're never getting a T-cell escape mutant that dramatically increases the risk of hospitalization/death in the vaccinated/recovered. There's really very little to worry about variants if your vaxxed and boosted. Experts still don't have any idea how intrinsically virulent Omicron is, and it may be every bit as intrinsically virulent as Delta was (there's lots of issues with the TMPRSS2 studies in mice, while the dominant effect is that Omicron is an escape mutant and is reinfecting and infecting the vaccinated). The lower hospitalization rate of the Omicron wave can be explained entirely by human immunity. The properties of the virus are likely much less important than the headlines indicate, which suggests the the slow process of the human race building up immunity is going to grind on and future waves will be less and less effectively virulent (although it seems like human emotions are really attracted to the idea that the virus is changing to become less virulent and that seems to be driving emotional acceptance that the pandemic is winding down).
- paganel 5y ago
  > wave can be explained entirely by human immunity. It's also the fact that, to put it bluntly, many of the people who were the most susceptible to be sent into ICU or to die because of Covid have already had that happen to them. Not sure if that scenario is included in the definition of "herd immunity", to be honest, just wanted to point that (cynical) truth out.
  - lamontcg 5y ago
    Yeah and at some point the remaining people who haven't formed any kind of natural immunity many just be "hard to infect". Their ACE2 receptors might be different, or their innate+intrinsic defenses shred the virus very effectively before infection really gets going. They just aren't accommodating hosts for the virus due to some trick of their own biology/genetics. Selection effects work both ways.

by elif 5y ago

s1artibartfast 5y ago

It will be very interesting to see how containment countries adapt to the future, where global eradication simply isn't possible. Perhaps there will be a sterilizing vaccine that makes it worth it in the end. My heart goes out to those impacted by containment strategies. I was talking with someone from NZ or AU (I forget), who hasn't been able to go home an see his wife in two Christmases.

henrikschroder 5y ago

What effective containment strategies? Pretty much every country's strategies have completely collapsed due to Omicron. Australia currently has a wildly exponential growth of cases and twice the number of daily cases/capita compared to Sweden, to take two countries at each end of the "containment" spectrum. And that's despite Australia being in the middle of summer, despite Australia being isolated in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, and despite Australia having more restrictions than Sweden right now. It's all hubris. We have way less control over the spread than we like to think.

zionic 5y ago
Not just “more than Sweden”. Australia has failed while going full 1984. This entire thing is a huge inditement of police nanny states.
paganel 5y ago
> What effective containment strategies? I think NZ and especially China are the only ones left. I think NZ has relaxed its restrictions about 2-3 months ago and to be honest I'm a little surprised they haven't yet followed Australia's path with the exponential number of Omicron cases, but imo the very big question remains China, I have no idea how they plan to handle this going forward.
- potatochup 5y ago
  Yeah, NZ is going to get Omicron at some point and then we'll catch up with the rest of the world. We had <20 cases the other day, but there are hundreds in quarantine who've arrived from other countries that will bring in Omicron. 2020 and 2021 was mostly totally covid free, so having normal life back again was a real blessing. But it's just a matter of time before we catch up to the rest of the world
- henrikschroder 5y ago
  I don't trust a single number or report coming out of China. The official numbers show a couple of thousand dead. No way. Dictatorships usually make examples of individuals/groups/regions to make everyone else fall in line. The virus however doesn't give a shit about the wishes of authoritarian regimes, which is why making an example of a region or a city and forcing millions of people to stay indoors, doesn't stop the spread elsewhere. It's a virus, not a rebellion. I'm assuming China has always had a low level spread that could be hidden, because their demographics make it a non-issue. However, I'm guessing Omicron is creating such massive spread that regional officials can't deny reality any longer, and the lockdowns are some kind of desperate last-ditch attempt to save face.
  - camdat 5y ago
    There have been independent studies showing their numbers are, while not perfectly accurate, within the margin of error for extrapolated excess mortality[0]. As I've said in other threads on this issue, it is very difficult to hide deaths on even a small scale. Bodies do not simply disappear, and even small numbers of deaths are easily discoverable by measuring economic output (and even air quality!) of the region. China is being at least reletively honest in their reporting, and I think thats difficult for us westerners to believe because their numbers are so shockingly low. An effective containment strategy _is_ possible, and the west has utterly failed in that respect. [0]: https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n415 https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n415
    - perl4ever 5y ago
      Have you read it? Or did you take the word of other people on HN who told you your link was a study about China and not Cuba?
koyote 5y ago
> Australia having more restrictions than Sweden right now. Do you have a source for that? Most Australian states have little to no restrictions at the moment bar mask mandates indoors. If I googled correctly, Sweden only allows seated customers in bars, restaurants and events as well as limits to events?
- henrikschroder 5y ago
  Most Australian states still have mandatory qr-code checkins for everything, police are still chasing people fleeing the "voluntary" quarantine at Howard Springs, and still fining people not wearing face masks. And some still have restrictions that are stricter than what Sweden currently has: https://www.covid-19.sa.gov.au/restrictions-and-responsibilities/activities-and-gatherings/current-activity-restrictions https://www.covid-19.sa.gov.au/restrictions-and-responsibili... The other restrictions are of course coming back, despite promises to the contrary: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2022/jan/07/australia-live-news-update-nsw-reportedly-to-reintroduce-covid-restrictions-home-affairs-minister-defends-djokovic-visa-decision-vaccine- https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2022/jan/07/... https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-06/covid-restrictions-tighten-in-victoria-to-slow-spread-of-omicron/100741342 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-06/covid-restrictions-ti...

lamontcg 5y ago

> the vast good that comes from containing spread for mutagenic purposes. We're never getting a T-cell escape mutant that dramatically increases the risk of hospitalization/death in the vaccinated/recovered. There's really very little to worry about variants if your vaxxed and boosted. Experts still don't have any idea how intrinsically virulent Omicron is, and it may be every bit as intrinsically virulent as Delta was (there's lots of issues with the TMPRSS2 studies in mice, while the dominant effect is that Omicron is an escape mutant and is reinfecting and infecting the vaccinated). The lower hospitalization rate of the Omicron wave can be explained entirely by human immunity. The properties of the virus are likely much less important than the headlines indicate, which suggests the the slow process of the human race building up immunity is going to grind on and future waves will be less and less effectively virulent (although it seems like human emotions are really attracted to the idea that the virus is changing to become less virulent and that seems to be driving emotional acceptance that the pandemic is winding down).

paganel 5y ago
> wave can be explained entirely by human immunity. It's also the fact that, to put it bluntly, many of the people who were the most susceptible to be sent into ICU or to die because of Covid have already had that happen to them. Not sure if that scenario is included in the definition of "herd immunity", to be honest, just wanted to point that (cynical) truth out.
- lamontcg 5y ago
  Yeah and at some point the remaining people who haven't formed any kind of natural immunity many just be "hard to infect". Their ACE2 receptors might be different, or their innate+intrinsic defenses shred the virus very effectively before infection really gets going. They just aren't accommodating hosts for the virus due to some trick of their own biology/genetics. Selection effects work both ways.