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I get what you're saying, but I think I disagree. Ordering on Amazon from your phone is a much faster experience that reaches more products, but it is an analog

I get what you're saying, but I think I disagree. Ordering on Amazon from your phone is a much faster experience that reaches more products, but it is an analogue to mailing in an order from the Sears catalog. I don't think there's an 1822 analogue to the Sears catalog. And the quote was about "surprise". I don't think it'd be a complete shock to see that the world got more connected, ordering became easier, deliveries became faster. In 1822 the railroad was very much still in its early stages; the Erie Canal had just been completed, the Pony Express and the telegraph were still almost 40 years away. Put differently, a lot of "0 to 1" stuff had happened by 1922.

throwaway0a5e 5y ago
>Put differently, a lot of "0 to 1" stuff had happened by 1922. How much of that 0-1 is stuff that existed in some niche or experimental capacity prior to 1822 but simply became possible at scale? We had writing for millennia but the printing press changed the world. We've had steel for millennia but the Bessemer process changed the world. We've always been able to send information long distances but digital communications changed the world. You can always pick whatever specific innovations you want as the 0-1 transition point but it's the widespread availability of something that changes the world.
- Brendinooo 5y ago
  I don't think I disagree with your point, I just think that your point doesn't speak to the "who would be more surprised" question. And, thinking about it, maybe 0-1 wasn't a good way for me to make that case. To order something from Amazon from your toilet, you need - indoor plumbing - computing - electricity - industrialized mass production - global connectivity - global transportation network Someone in 1922 could imagine a telephone in a bathroom that could be used to contact a Sears-like company to order a mass-produced product and have it delivered from a faraway place. In 1822 you barely have the idea of industrialization and electricity, let alone anything else. "Write a letter from your cesspit to have a product from St. Louis delivered to New York, but your letter is instantly delivered instead of taking six weeks, production is faster and cheaper than your local craftsman (it's not being made to order!), and instead of taking six weeks to ship it, it takes two days (2022) or a week(?) (1922)." It's not just that the same kind of thing is happening at a grander scale, it requires a fundamental reorientation of how you'd think about consuming products. So yeah, Amazon's scale in 2022 is astronomically greater than Sears's in 1922 and that is significant, but they share way more fundamentals than 1822 and 1922 did.

throwaway0a5e 5y ago

>Put differently, a lot of "0 to 1" stuff had happened by 1922. How much of that 0-1 is stuff that existed in some niche or experimental capacity prior to 1822 but simply became possible at scale? We had writing for millennia but the printing press changed the world. We've had steel for millennia but the Bessemer process changed the world. We've always been able to send information long distances but digital communications changed the world. You can always pick whatever specific innovations you want as the 0-1 transition point but it's the widespread availability of something that changes the world.

Brendinooo 5y ago
I don't think I disagree with your point, I just think that your point doesn't speak to the "who would be more surprised" question. And, thinking about it, maybe 0-1 wasn't a good way for me to make that case. To order something from Amazon from your toilet, you need - indoor plumbing - computing - electricity - industrialized mass production - global connectivity - global transportation network Someone in 1922 could imagine a telephone in a bathroom that could be used to contact a Sears-like company to order a mass-produced product and have it delivered from a faraway place. In 1822 you barely have the idea of industrialization and electricity, let alone anything else. "Write a letter from your cesspit to have a product from St. Louis delivered to New York, but your letter is instantly delivered instead of taking six weeks, production is faster and cheaper than your local craftsman (it's not being made to order!), and instead of taking six weeks to ship it, it takes two days (2022) or a week(?) (1922)." It's not just that the same kind of thing is happening at a grander scale, it requires a fundamental reorientation of how you'd think about consuming products. So yeah, Amazon's scale in 2022 is astronomically greater than Sears's in 1922 and that is significant, but they share way more fundamentals than 1822 and 1922 did.