3 ms·

This nightmarish scenario for Microsoft actually happened. This is Android OS. What Microsoft avoided was this happening in PCs.

by Shorel 5y ago

Longhanks 5y ago
This scenario was a lot more nightmarish in the 2000s, when Microsoft needed Windows and Windows software for making money. Today, it is a lot less nightmarish.
wing-_-nuts 5y ago
It's easy to handwave away Bill's concern today because windows is still the main OS on PCs and laptops. That's kind of missing the point. What you don't see is all the areas where MS could have 'won' had the world not moved in a more platform agnostic direction. Remember all of the little miniature laptops in the 90s? Practically all of them ran some version of windows even if it was laughably impractical for such a device. MS completely missed the 'mobile' train and could have dominated if they were paying attention. Remember all of the enterprise systems running some version of windows server? Imagine a world where java didn't exist and the .net runtime was dominant. That's a cash cow without end. As it is, MS missed out on both mobile and most of the enterprise infra pie. If they had managed to capture both they'd be an absolute behemoth.
- Shorel 5y ago
  I still don't understand how they lost the instant messaging market. Nowadays, every one of my friends has WhatsApp. In 1999, I believed it was impossible for anyone to use anything that was not MSN messenger. MSN was HUGE.
- nikanj 5y ago
  PCs took a hard turn towards power-constrained (i.e. laptop running on battery) right around the same time Windows took a hard turn towards "resources are cheap and plentiful, just toss seven levels of XML in it"
- arantius 5y ago
  > Remember all of the little miniature laptops in the 90s? In the 90s? Laptops barely existed, definitely not "little minature" ones. I remember e.g. the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asus_Eee_PC https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asus_Eee_PC launched in 2007, and many follow-ons after that.
  - stevesimmons 5y ago
    The HP95LX [1] was introduced in 1991, ran from two AA batteries, has MS-DOS and include a ROM version of the Lotus 1-2-3 spreadsheet. Eight years earlier, in 1983, the Tandy TRS-80 Model 100 [2] was remarkable: 4 line x 40 char display, 8kB RAM, powered by 4 AA batteries, all for $799. Incidentally, the May 1983 issue of Byte magazine in [2] was themed "The Electronic Office" and is full of ads for Apple, Microsoft and IBM products, amongst others. Back then, a 20MB hard drive was $3300, equivalent to $9000 in today's money. [1] http://hpmuseum.net/display_item.php?hw=202 http://hpmuseum.net/display_item.php?hw=202 [2] https://archive.org/details/byte-magazine-1983-05/page/n15/mode/1up?view=theater https://archive.org/details/byte-magazine-1983-05/page/n15/m...
smrtinsert 5y ago
The apps of tomorrow are not exclusive to Windows I would say, Instagram, Google, eBay, etc so I would say he was right also. The response emails were also right in that the existing business was not immediately threatened, but it is definitely diminished.

This nightmarish scenario for Microsoft actually happened. This is Android OS. What Microsoft avoided was this happening in PCs.

by Shorel 5y ago

This nightmarish scenario for Microsoft actually happened. This is Android OS. What Microsoft avoided was this happening in PCs.

Longhanks 5y ago

This scenario was a lot more nightmarish in the 2000s, when Microsoft needed Windows and Windows software for making money. Today, it is a lot less nightmarish.

wing-_-nuts 5y ago

It's easy to handwave away Bill's concern today because windows is still the main OS on PCs and laptops. That's kind of missing the point. What you don't see is all the areas where MS could have 'won' had the world not moved in a more platform agnostic direction. Remember all of the little miniature laptops in the 90s? Practically all of them ran some version of windows even if it was laughably impractical for such a device. MS completely missed the 'mobile' train and could have dominated if they were paying attention. Remember all of the enterprise systems running some version of windows server? Imagine a world where java didn't exist and the .net runtime was dominant. That's a cash cow without end. As it is, MS missed out on both mobile and most of the enterprise infra pie. If they had managed to capture both they'd be an absolute behemoth.

Shorel 5y ago
I still don't understand how they lost the instant messaging market. Nowadays, every one of my friends has WhatsApp. In 1999, I believed it was impossible for anyone to use anything that was not MSN messenger. MSN was HUGE.
nikanj 5y ago
PCs took a hard turn towards power-constrained (i.e. laptop running on battery) right around the same time Windows took a hard turn towards "resources are cheap and plentiful, just toss seven levels of XML in it"
arantius 5y ago
> Remember all of the little miniature laptops in the 90s? In the 90s? Laptops barely existed, definitely not "little minature" ones. I remember e.g. the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asus_Eee_PC https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asus_Eee_PC launched in 2007, and many follow-ons after that.
- stevesimmons 5y ago
  The HP95LX [1] was introduced in 1991, ran from two AA batteries, has MS-DOS and include a ROM version of the Lotus 1-2-3 spreadsheet. Eight years earlier, in 1983, the Tandy TRS-80 Model 100 [2] was remarkable: 4 line x 40 char display, 8kB RAM, powered by 4 AA batteries, all for $799. Incidentally, the May 1983 issue of Byte magazine in [2] was themed "The Electronic Office" and is full of ads for Apple, Microsoft and IBM products, amongst others. Back then, a 20MB hard drive was $3300, equivalent to $9000 in today's money. [1] http://hpmuseum.net/display_item.php?hw=202 http://hpmuseum.net/display_item.php?hw=202 [2] https://archive.org/details/byte-magazine-1983-05/page/n15/mode/1up?view=theater https://archive.org/details/byte-magazine-1983-05/page/n15/m...

smrtinsert 5y ago

The apps of tomorrow are not exclusive to Windows I would say, Instagram, Google, eBay, etc so I would say he was right also. The response emails were also right in that the existing business was not immediately threatened, but it is definitely diminished.