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> He said: "There's no advantage to the virus itself becoming more severe." I thought the virus doesn't care about becoming more or less sever since its transm

> He said: "There's no advantage to the virus itself becoming more severe." I thought the virus doesn't care about becoming more or less sever since its transmission capability is all that matters to it and symptoms are hidden (thus increasing transmission between individuals) in the first days of infection and that's what evolution is driving him to be: more transmissible. The fact symptoms appear sooner than delta seems to be a step backward for the virus in terms of efficacy and it's compensated by being way way way more virulent. What am I getting wrong here ? Also: Omicron could as well have been more severe (and the jury is still out on long covid anyway). If there's another variant less virulent but compensated by hiding symptoms longer... then this would take over omicron and this variant could as well be more severe. Is that totally out of the realm of possibilities ? My regular joe thinking tells me that we can only be sure of the direction it's going to take when spring comes. 2021 had 5 vocs, it's only the first days of January.

spuz 5y ago
Yes, I believe the high transmissibility before symptoms appear is the most beneficial trait to Omicron. However, if a variant appeared with exactly the same traits except that it was 10x more deadly, then a lot more people would be taking it more seriously, self-isolating and driving down infections. From an evolutionary perspective, there is an incentive for the virus to become milder rather than more deadly because of how the news of a deadly virus changes human behaviour.
- bayesianbot 5y ago
  But future human actions do not put evolutionary pressure on the virus. First the possible new variant emerges, our actions come later.
  - nawgz 5y ago
    It's not like strains of the virus are made by intelligent design. The point is that Omicron became dominant because people due to a lot of factors, its high transmissibility and people's disinterest in quarantining among them. If Omicron 2.0 came out with the same transmissibility, but a notably higher lethality, people's interest in quarantining would have increased significantly, which could have prevented Omicron becoming the dominant strain in spite of its increased transmissibility.
everybodyknows 5y ago
Stats for symptom onset delay need to be disaggregated by vaccination status. Search text for "Kato" here: https://thezvi.substack.com/p/omicron-post-12 https://thezvi.substack.com/p/omicron-post-12

spuz 5y ago

Yes, I believe the high transmissibility before symptoms appear is the most beneficial trait to Omicron. However, if a variant appeared with exactly the same traits except that it was 10x more deadly, then a lot more people would be taking it more seriously, self-isolating and driving down infections. From an evolutionary perspective, there is an incentive for the virus to become milder rather than more deadly because of how the news of a deadly virus changes human behaviour.

bayesianbot 5y ago
But future human actions do not put evolutionary pressure on the virus. First the possible new variant emerges, our actions come later.
- nawgz 5y ago
  It's not like strains of the virus are made by intelligent design. The point is that Omicron became dominant because people due to a lot of factors, its high transmissibility and people's disinterest in quarantining among them. If Omicron 2.0 came out with the same transmissibility, but a notably higher lethality, people's interest in quarantining would have increased significantly, which could have prevented Omicron becoming the dominant strain in spite of its increased transmissibility.

everybodyknows 5y ago

Stats for symptom onset delay need to be disaggregated by vaccination status. Search text for "Kato" here: https://thezvi.substack.com/p/omicron-post-12 https://thezvi.substack.com/p/omicron-post-12