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Hubris? I think he was right, and that the world of 1822 was more different from 1922 than 1922 is to now. Computers seem to be the primary novel invention in t

Hubris? I think he was right, and that the world of 1822 was more different from 1922 than 1922 is to now. Computers seem to be the primary novel invention in the last hundred years, but long-distance data transfer was normal - and the fax machine sending pictures was overseas was just two years away (1924). 1822 was a horse-drawn, gas-lit world that was in many ways the same as it had been for millennia. 1922 was a world where rapid transportation (planes , trains, and automobiles),recorded images and sounds, electric light, radio broadcasts and instantaneous intercontinental communication.

throwaway0a5e 5y ago
> but long-distance data transfer was normal - and the fax machine sending pictures was overseas was just two years away (1924). "Quantity has a quality all its own" -Joseph Stalin Saying the fax let us move information long distance is like saying global trade was around in the middle ages because Macro Polo. The quantity difference is so big it becomes a qualitative difference. I can arrange to have an arbitrary industrial doodad show up on my doorstep from literally the other side of the world while taking a shit. I can stream 1080p to/from damn near anywhere on the planet. In 30sec I can get answers to specific technical questions that would have taken hours for the president of the US to get an answer to in 1990. The list goes on. Communication and information are just so much more abundant than they were even 75yr ago.
- Brendinooo 5y ago
  I get what you're saying, but I think I disagree. Ordering on Amazon from your phone is a much faster experience that reaches more products, but it is an analogue to mailing in an order from the Sears catalog. I don't think there's an 1822 analogue to the Sears catalog. And the quote was about "surprise". I don't think it'd be a complete shock to see that the world got more connected, ordering became easier, deliveries became faster. In 1822 the railroad was very much still in its early stages; the Erie Canal had just been completed, the Pony Express and the telegraph were still almost 40 years away. Put differently, a lot of "0 to 1" stuff had happened by 1922.
  - throwaway0a5e 5y ago
    >Put differently, a lot of "0 to 1" stuff had happened by 1922. How much of that 0-1 is stuff that existed in some niche or experimental capacity prior to 1822 but simply became possible at scale? We had writing for millennia but the printing press changed the world. We've had steel for millennia but the Bessemer process changed the world. We've always been able to send information long distances but digital communications changed the world. You can always pick whatever specific innovations you want as the 0-1 transition point but it's the widespread availability of something that changes the world.
    - Brendinooo 5y ago
      I don't think I disagree with your point, I just think that your point doesn't speak to the "who would be more surprised" question. And, thinking about it, maybe 0-1 wasn't a good way for me to make that case. To order something from Amazon from your toilet, you need - indoor plumbing - computing - electricity - industrialized mass production - global connectivity - global transportation network Someone in 1922 could imagine a telephone in a bathroom that could be used to contact a Sears-like company to order a mass-produced product and have it delivered from a faraway place. In 1822 you barely have the idea of industrialization and electricity, let alone anything else. "Write a letter from your cesspit to have a product from St. Louis delivered to New York, but your letter is instantly delivered instead of taking six weeks, production is faster and cheaper than your local craftsman (it's not being made to order!), and instead of taking six weeks to ship it, it takes two days (2022) or a week(?) (1922)." It's not just that the same kind of thing is happening at a grander scale, it requires a fundamental reorientation of how you'd think about consuming products. So yeah, Amazon's scale in 2022 is astronomically greater than Sears's in 1922 and that is significant, but they share way more fundamentals than 1822 and 1922 did.
Aardwolf 5y ago
Of all the science fiction things that I knew when I was a kid in the 90s, only one actually happened, and that's handheld devices with touchscreens with all the world's information accessible through them. Many others, like humanoid robots (that can do actual stuff like independently clean a home), general AI, actual real space travel (where people live on different planets or giant space wheels), flying cars, replicators, fusion energy, self driving cars (those are near though), brain uploads, nanobots, curing many diseases, etc... didn't happen and won't any time soon, and of course some are physically impossible like FTL travel, teleportation, time travel, ... It's at least nice to have seen one science fiction fantasy come true so far :)
- NoGravitas 5y ago
  As always, when this kind of things come up, I'd like to mention "Of Flying Cars and the Declining Rate of Profit" (2012), by the late David Graeber. There's a reason late 20th and early 21st century technological development went the way it did, rather than the way it looked like it would from the mid 20th century. https://thebaffler.com/salvos/of-flying-cars-and-the-declining-rate-of-profit https://thebaffler.com/salvos/of-flying-cars-and-the-declini...
jameshart 5y ago
"1822 was a horse-drawn, gas-lit world" In fact, gas light was bleeding edge tech in 1822 - confined to a few parts of cities like London and Baltimore. The New York City gas company was only chartered in 1823. Chicago didn't get gas light until 1850. Whale oil was still a significant source of illumination right through the 19th century, especially in the US.

throwaway0a5e 5y ago

> but long-distance data transfer was normal - and the fax machine sending pictures was overseas was just two years away (1924). "Quantity has a quality all its own" -Joseph Stalin Saying the fax let us move information long distance is like saying global trade was around in the middle ages because Macro Polo. The quantity difference is so big it becomes a qualitative difference. I can arrange to have an arbitrary industrial doodad show up on my doorstep from literally the other side of the world while taking a shit. I can stream 1080p to/from damn near anywhere on the planet. In 30sec I can get answers to specific technical questions that would have taken hours for the president of the US to get an answer to in 1990. The list goes on. Communication and information are just so much more abundant than they were even 75yr ago.

Brendinooo 5y ago
I get what you're saying, but I think I disagree. Ordering on Amazon from your phone is a much faster experience that reaches more products, but it is an analogue to mailing in an order from the Sears catalog. I don't think there's an 1822 analogue to the Sears catalog. And the quote was about "surprise". I don't think it'd be a complete shock to see that the world got more connected, ordering became easier, deliveries became faster. In 1822 the railroad was very much still in its early stages; the Erie Canal had just been completed, the Pony Express and the telegraph were still almost 40 years away. Put differently, a lot of "0 to 1" stuff had happened by 1922.
- throwaway0a5e 5y ago
  >Put differently, a lot of "0 to 1" stuff had happened by 1922. How much of that 0-1 is stuff that existed in some niche or experimental capacity prior to 1822 but simply became possible at scale? We had writing for millennia but the printing press changed the world. We've had steel for millennia but the Bessemer process changed the world. We've always been able to send information long distances but digital communications changed the world. You can always pick whatever specific innovations you want as the 0-1 transition point but it's the widespread availability of something that changes the world.
  - Brendinooo 5y ago
    I don't think I disagree with your point, I just think that your point doesn't speak to the "who would be more surprised" question. And, thinking about it, maybe 0-1 wasn't a good way for me to make that case. To order something from Amazon from your toilet, you need - indoor plumbing - computing - electricity - industrialized mass production - global connectivity - global transportation network Someone in 1922 could imagine a telephone in a bathroom that could be used to contact a Sears-like company to order a mass-produced product and have it delivered from a faraway place. In 1822 you barely have the idea of industrialization and electricity, let alone anything else. "Write a letter from your cesspit to have a product from St. Louis delivered to New York, but your letter is instantly delivered instead of taking six weeks, production is faster and cheaper than your local craftsman (it's not being made to order!), and instead of taking six weeks to ship it, it takes two days (2022) or a week(?) (1922)." It's not just that the same kind of thing is happening at a grander scale, it requires a fundamental reorientation of how you'd think about consuming products. So yeah, Amazon's scale in 2022 is astronomically greater than Sears's in 1922 and that is significant, but they share way more fundamentals than 1822 and 1922 did.

Aardwolf 5y ago

Of all the science fiction things that I knew when I was a kid in the 90s, only one actually happened, and that's handheld devices with touchscreens with all the world's information accessible through them. Many others, like humanoid robots (that can do actual stuff like independently clean a home), general AI, actual real space travel (where people live on different planets or giant space wheels), flying cars, replicators, fusion energy, self driving cars (those are near though), brain uploads, nanobots, curing many diseases, etc... didn't happen and won't any time soon, and of course some are physically impossible like FTL travel, teleportation, time travel, ... It's at least nice to have seen one science fiction fantasy come true so far :)

NoGravitas 5y ago
As always, when this kind of things come up, I'd like to mention "Of Flying Cars and the Declining Rate of Profit" (2012), by the late David Graeber. There's a reason late 20th and early 21st century technological development went the way it did, rather than the way it looked like it would from the mid 20th century. https://thebaffler.com/salvos/of-flying-cars-and-the-declining-rate-of-profit https://thebaffler.com/salvos/of-flying-cars-and-the-declini...

jameshart 5y ago

"1822 was a horse-drawn, gas-lit world" In fact, gas light was bleeding edge tech in 1822 - confined to a few parts of cities like London and Baltimore. The New York City gas company was only chartered in 1823. Chicago didn't get gas light until 1850. Whale oil was still a significant source of illumination right through the 19th century, especially in the US.