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I thought that a second variant was essentially an independent stochastic process. If I have that right that suggests that, had Omicron not occurred Colorado wo
by rocqua 5y ago
I thought that a second variant was essentially an independent stochastic process.
If I have that right that suggests that, had Omicron not occurred Colorado would currently be Corona-free.
I doubt that is true though. Maybe some of the people who now have Omicron would have gotten Delta later on? I don't see how one variant can truly extinguish another variant otherwise. But I am hoping someone here knows better than me.
- c-fe 5y agoHow do you see them as independent stochastic processes? Assuming one person can only be infected with 1 variant at a time, then they are not independent, instead they would be negatively correlated since the more people have omikron the less people can get delta. If instead one person can have more than 1 variant at a time, and they are really independent, then your conclusion is incorrect since a 100% prevalance of omikron would not imply a 0% prevalance of other variants.
- johnchristopher 5y agoThere's something I don't understand: why can't we be infected with different variants at the same time ? And does it extend to viruses (eg: can't get infected with flu if currently fighting measles) ? I read someone in Israel got `flurona`, flu + covid (https://www.timesofisrael.com/flurona-israel-records-its-first-case-of-patient-with-covid-and-flu-at-same-time/ https://www.timesofisrael.com/flurona-israel-records-its-fir...).
- zmmmmm 5y agowell, at least with the different coronavirus strains, they are similar enough that getting one is effectively like an immunisation against all the other strains. Now you could probably get two strains simultaneously if you were independently infected separately by both at the same time. Delta, however, isn't quite common enough for that to be likely I think.
- m0llusk 5y agoThere are multiple factors involved. The extremely high rate of spread of Omicron does a lot to bring it to the top. More subtle is the difference between immunity generated by each. That is, it appears that vaccinations and post infection immunity from Delta are little help against Omicron infections, but post Omicron immunity is highly effective against Delta. This appears to be related primarily to differences in the spike protein.
- rsynnott 5y agoIf having had omicron is reasonably protective against contracting delta in the short term, then this works. For now. Who knows how long any acquired immunity holds up. Delta did pretty much eliminate prior variants in many parts of the world.
- gilbetron 5y agoYour bodies response to a virus makes it difficult for another virus to take hold, but not impossible. There's a lag in the body's immune response when a virus first is detected, and then another lag while the body builds up the defenders (antibodies and other things). So for someone to have multiple viruses at the same time, largely the exposure has to happen at the same time. The more different the viruses are, the more likely they can be in the body at the same time in a meaningful number. When an immune system is "all revved up", it is very hard for a few thousand virus cells to get exponential growth going needed. Antibodies (and b-cells and t-cells) for Delta work ok enough against Omicron, and vice-versa. Since Omicron is spreading so fast, it is able to get to more bodies faster than Delta, so Delta has no where to go. Delta did the same to previous variants.