> Or to put it another way, the stock market goes up -so when you predict it goes up, you're generally right. Yes! If you compare to the coin toss baseline, yo

> Or to put it another way, the stock market goes up -so when you predict it goes up, you're generally right. Yes! If you compare to the coin toss baseline, you need to weight it by how the average stock (whatever that means) moves. So the baseline of a 50-50 coin toss is misleading, and should probably be 50+epsilon, 50-epsilon instead, in order to be a fair comparison. However, the S&P 500 baseline is solid, imo.